UFC Vegas 70: Suarez vs De La Rosa
The UFC is back in Vegas yet again for a fun stylistic match up between two top 10 light heavyweights Ryan Spann (21-7-0) and Nikita Krylov (29-9-0). Although this is sure to be a banger of a headliner, many fans are looking forward to the return of a promising prospect that took the world by storm, Tatiana Suarez, who is set to face Montana De La Rosa in the lone women’s fight featured on the main card.
Montana De La Rosa (12-7-1) began her professional mixed martial arts career in 2014, earning enough impressive wins to get a shot on The Ultimate Fighter 26, a season that was dedicated to crowning the first women’s flyweight champion in UFC history. De La Rosa stuck with the same small gym in Fort Worth, Texas from 2014 up until 2020 when she decided to make a change and move to Team Elevation in Colorado ahead of her fight with Viviane Araujo (11-4-0). Although she lost her fight with Araujo, she’s gone on to take Mayra Bueno Silva to a draw, who looked incredible last weekend with a performance bonus worthy submission over Lina Lansberg (10-8-0), as well as secure a vicious TKO win over the queen of violence, Ariane Lipski (14-8-0) in 2021. Following the win against Lipski, De La Rosa lost a unanimous decision to another flyweight prospect Maycee Barber (11-2-0). De La Rosa has not had the easiest run in the promotion but she continues to take on opponents that are sure to give her a challenge and that is highly respectable and shows the confidence she has in her abilities. De La Rosa is currently tied with the surging contender Erin Blanchfield (11-1-0) for the 2nd most submission wins in flyweight history (3). De La Rosa is a fairly well rounded fighter but she is mostly known for her grappling abilities, wrestling in highschool and switching to grappling once she began her mixed martial arts training shortly after graduating. She is fairly long for the division, standing at 5’7” with a 68” reach. When watching De La Rosa’s previous fights, I’ve noticed that she is typically patient in the first round, finding her range by using her jab and reading her opponent to calculate the perfect time for a double leg or body lock attempt, seemingly her two most favored methods to getting the fight on the mat. De La Rosa tends to favor the smothering type of grappling, occasionally inflicting damage with strikes as well as searching for submissions here and there but primarily focusing on keeping her opponent controlled beneath her. In her fight with Ariane Lipski, I was impressed to see the elbows that she was raining down from top position, which resulted in the fight ending via TKO in the 2nd round. De La Rosa is clearly comfortable on the feet with her opponents, making her a dangerous fighter anywhere the fight may end up. She picks her shots well and oftentimes slips out of the pocket to avoid counterstrikes, showing that she has a good understanding of range and technique when it comes to striking even if it’s not her bread and butter. De La Rosa mentioned in an interview with Steve Cheese of Selina MMA that she has known about the match up against Tatiana Suarez since November of 2022 so I expect to see the most polished version of her that we’ve seen thus far. De La Rosa will surely have a chip on her shoulder coming into this fight as a sizable underdog and I am eager to see if she can use this position to her advantage as she looks to get back in the win column on Saturday night.
Tatiana Suarez (8-0) will be making her highly anticipated return after over 1,300 days out of the octagon. Despite the lengthy time away, Suarez is heading into this fight as a huge favorite over De La Rosa. Suarez made her official UFC debut in 2016 with a win over Amanda Brundage (4-5-0) for the TUF season 23 finale. Suarez has only fought 4 times since her win in 2016 due to various injuries forcing her to take time away from the sport, but each win she’s collected in the 3 years that she was active we’re impressive to say the least. Suarez trains out of both Millennia MMA Gym and Xtreme Couture and is considered to be one of the best grapplers we have seen in women’s mixed martial arts, often being referred to as “The Female Khabib” during her initial rise in the UFC due to her ability to control her opponents and the relentless ground and pound she inflicts. In her 4th official fight with the UFC, she faced the former 2x strawweight champion and an elite wrestler in her own right, Carla Esparza (19-7-0). Suarez got Esparza down to the mat within 25 seconds of their fight and showed high level grappling throughout, securing an impressive 9 out of the 11 takedowns she attempted as well as stuffing both of the takedowns that Esparza attempted. Not only did Suarez convincingly finish this fight with a TKO in the 3rd round, before her fight with Esparza, she was matched up with the current flyweight champion challenger Alexa Grasso (15-3-0) and was able to finish her before the fight saw the second round. Suarez is an extremely aggressive fighter, whether she’s shooting for the takedown or inflicting damage from the top position, her intention to finish the fight shows in every move that she makes. Like her opponent, Suarez has a strong understanding of range. According to her UFC stats, for every 4.8 strikes she lands, she only absorbs 1.4, which is quite the impressive ratio. This is also due to the style in which she fights, rarely giving her opponents the space to land shots. Suarez does not waste any time in showcasing what she’s an expert at and that is getting her opponent to the ground. She is almost always successful in her first takedown attempt and if it’s not secured then, she will inevitably get you to the ground again, locking her hands together and attempting single leg takedowns, inside trips or using pure strength to throw her opponents down. I enjoy watching Suarez fight because she makes little to no mistakes and she is quite the grinder yet we never see her head back to the corner looking tired or discouraged. Regardless of the time she has spent away from the octagon, the anticipation for her comeback after nearly 4 years away is a testament in the confidence that fans have in her future title possibilities. I am looking forward to seeing how Suarez has improved over the years, injury free and ready to get back into the rankings and earn herself a shot at the title whether it’s in the strawweight or flyweight division.
Breakdown/Prediction:
Both of these women are known for their grappling, and you know what they say.. Put two grapplers against each other and they become strikers. Despite this notion, I do not expect this fight to play out on the feet. De La Rosa has been the more active fighter throughout the years but I don’t think this will be a huge factor in the way that the fight plays out on Saturday night. Considering the time off that Suarez has taken, I do think she may come into the first round and take a bit more time to read De La Rosa before she shoots but I highly doubt she strays away from the game plan that has gotten her so far in her career. De La Rosa has a decent takedown defense of 63% according to her UFC stats, but her fight with Maycee Barber has me questioning just how defensive she is against wrestlers that are a step ahead of her. I would consider Suarez many steps ahead of Barber and De La Rosa in the wrestling department, so I do not doubt that Suarez will be able to get her to the ground and control her there. De La Rosa has survived submission attempts from the likes of Mayra Bueno Silva and Rachel Ostovich in the past but Suarez is respectfully a much stronger grappler than both of those women. I think that De La Rosa is a bit more active on the feet than Suarez, but not by much. Suarez is calculated with her strikes and throws with the intention of setting her opponents up for the takedown, favoring her jab and overhand right as many wrestlers do. I think that De La Rosa may land a couple strikes on the feet before Suarez finds the opening for the takedown and finishes the first round on top. Going into the second round, I expect to see Suarez confident in her game plan, securing the takedown earlier than she may have in the first. De La Rosa did not have any answers for Maycee Barber in the bottom position, so I do not think she will have any for an elite grappler in Suarez. Considering De La Rosa’s submission defense in her past fights and the fact that she has only lost one fight via submission in her professional career to jiu-jitsu specialist Mackenzie Dern, I think this fight ends in the second round due to TKO strikes from mount by Suarez. This is one of my most anticipated fights of the card, be sure you don’t miss it.
Prediction:
Tatiana Suarez via TKO Round 2
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