UFC San Antonio: Barber vs Lee

The UFC is back in the lonestar state this weekend for a stacked fight night card headlined by top bantamweight stars Marlon “Chito” Vera and Cory Sandhagen. On the main card is an important fight at flyweight between two top 15 fighters Maycee “The Future” Barber (11-2-0) and Andrea “KGB” Lee (13-6-0).

Former LFA champion and #11 ranked UFC flyweight Andrea Lee will be fighting in front of her home crowd in Texas this weekend as she attempts to get back in the win column. Lee made her UFC debut in 2018 after racking up a 4 fight win streak outside of the promotion and her first fight in the UFC being a win against Veronica Hardy, who looked incredible last weekend in her fight against Juliana Miller. Lee is a black belt in Jiu Jitsu but is primarily known for her kickboxing. Lee trains out of a small gym in Louisiana and seems to be the only well known fighter at Synergy MMA. Watching Lee’s previous fights, her talent in kickboxing is very apparent. She does her best work when long range striking and does a great job at setting up her combinations with her lengthy straight left jab. Lee’s last fight was a loss to Viviane Araujo in May of 2022, almost a year ago. Lee came out strong and although she was dropped in the first exchanges of the fight, she showed her durability and was able to drop Araujo with a left hook as well as catch her with a nicely calculated kick on the way down. If Araujo wasn’t so tough, the fight may have ended there. Araujo initiated some scrambles on the ground but while Lee still had some energy left, she was able to defend submission attempts and get back to her feet more than once. Going into the second round with Araujo, it seemed as if Lee had emptied her gas tank trying to finish Araujo in the first. From this point on, Lee was unable to defend the takedowns efficiently and began to break from the pressure of Araujo even on the feet, where Lee typically prefers the fight to be. Lee was able to tough it out but lost a convincing decision. Before this fight, Lee faced Cynthia Calvillo in what was one of her best performances yet. Her striking here looked very sharp and I believe that when she is in her flow state, she throws some of the best head/body/kick combinations in the flyweight division. The first round was back and forth between the two but it was apparent how much more comfortable Lee was on the feet than Calvillo, and she was able to keep it there the entire round despite Calvillo’s attempts to get the fight to the mat. In the second round, Lee was the fighter dictating the pace and throwing first. Lee has the most success whenever she is consistently coming in and out of range, throwing kicks on the outside that then lead to her creating the opening for her striking in range. I do believe that Lee’s footwork and overall striking ability is underrated. She is not the most powerful flyweight but she is incredibly accurate whenever she gets going. The striking talent of Lee showed in the 2nd round of her fight with Calvillo and forced Calvillo to verbally tap before the 3rd round began. I like what I see from Lee in terms of her kicks and tendency to do what many fighters don’t, leading with a quick left jab that seems to give problems to each opponent she’s had, even in her losses. She does her best when she isn’t hesitant to pressure her opponent. Although Lee hasn’t been able to consistently find wins just yet, she is a tough out for many fighters in the flyweight division. I’m interested in seeing what improvements she’s made in almost a year out of the octagon as she seems in her media day interviews to be motivated and in a good mindset.

Maycee Barber, currently ranked #13, is one of those fighters that oozes confidence. Since her contender series bout and UFC debut, both in 2018, Barber has been a fighter that people will always tune in to watch. When she first made her way to the big stage, everyone was curious to see if she’d be able to accomplish her goal in beating Jon Jones’ record and becoming the youngest champion in UFC history. Barber was only 18 years old when she went pro and began her fighting career in the highly respected regional promotion of LFA, where she spent less than two years racking up wins before getting signed to the biggest MMA promotion in the world. At this point, she was undefeated and continued that streak in the UFC until her 4th time out against the OG, Roxanne Modafferi (23-16-0). Barber is a gritty fighter and does her best work whenever she is confident enough to mix all of her talents together. She fights out of Team Alpha MMA in Sacramento, owned by former WEC champion and pioneer in the UFC, Uriah Faber. When Faber speaks about Barber, he always mentions her work ethic and her drive to chase greatness. One thing that doesn’t change about Barber despite her technical improvements is her heart and clear love for fighting. In watching her previous fights with the UFC I noticed that whether she is winning or losing rounds, she rarely comes off as defeated. Barber was a bit more chaotic in her striking when she first made her way to the UFC but it worked for her at that level because of her pressure and aggression. She came back from her first loss in 2020 after a year away and was faced with the now champion of the flyweight division, Alexa Grasso. At this point in her career, Barber seemed to be a bit impatient and eager to find her finishes on the feet. Grasso was able to get the better of the exchanges at range and in the clinch, which won her the unanimous decision against Barber. Since Barber’s last loss to Grasso, she has been able to string together 3 wins in the octagon. The improvements that I’ve seen from her since are impressive. She has done a great job at using her striking to set up the clinch and tire her opponents out by keeping them against the fence and throwing elbows, knees to the body and even shoulder strikes. Barber is the shorter fighter more often than not but seems to have found her groove when it comes to striking in range and causing damage from the clinch. In her fight against Montana De La Rosa, who is a talented wrestler herself, Barber had the strength advantage and was able to control De La Rosa against the fence and throw fairly damaging strikes from time to time. This was a good performance from Barber but in her last win against Jessica Eye, I noticed that she has found the perfect balance between her wrestling and her striking. She was much more offensive when in the clinch with Eye and caused significant damage before the second round even began. Eye initiated the clinch and Barber was able to capitalize on it much more than the initiator. Barber mentioned in her post fight interview that she is growing up in the UFC and I wholeheartedly believe that is true, each fight she continues to improve and add weapons to her striking and strength in her grappling. Although Barber has passed the window to complete her initial goal in becoming the youngest UFC champion in history, I don’t doubt that we will see her fight for a belt one day if not become a champion as she’s said since the beginning.

Breakdown/Prediction:

I think that Barber vs Lee could be a closer fight than the odds imply. Maycee Barber is the favorite going into this match up but despite Andrea Lee coming off of a loss, she is a tough night out for anyone and does ultimately have the striking advantage over Barber. Both of these women are aggressive and do their best work when they are in control of the pace and range of the fight, meaning we could quite possibly see these two in each other’s face from the beginning of round one. When it comes to the feet, I wouldn’t consider either Lee or Barber a counter striker. They both seem to prefer being first. This fight is yet another example of striker vs grappler, with Lee being superior on the feet and Barber being the stronger wrestler/grappler. I expect to see some success from Lee in the first round by keeping Barber at bay with her kicks, but would not be surprised to see Barber attempt to catch one of those kicks and get the fight to the ground the same way that Calvillo was able to momentarily do. Lee’s UFC stats indicate that her takedown defense is just over 50% accurate which isn’t terrible, but what I like to see from Lee is her ability to get up, which she does well against most opponents. What I continuously go back to when breaking down this fight is Lee’s most recent time out, Barber has a similar build to Araujo and Araujo was able to make Lee uncomfortable with in range strikes as well as completely control Lee on the ground. Araujo’s striking defense is much better than Barber’s and Barber tends to leave herself open by over extending some of her shots, but I don’t see Lee capitalizing on this because it is clear that she has less success landing when her opponents are in the pocket. As I said when briefly breaking down Lee’s fighting style, she does her best work when she is able to use her length to her advantage and strike from the outside. She does not seem to be very offensive at all when her opponents are in her face, which is exactly what Maycee Barber likes to do. Because Barber’s defensive striking isn’t quite as good as Araujo’s, I do think that Barber may absorb some damage from Lee in rounds one and possibly the beginning of round two depending on if Lee unloads the gas tank in the first or tires from the grappling of Barber. Lee was able to drop Araujo in their first round so Barber will need to be cautious when she is coming in to close the distance initially but Barber is young and durable, I think she will be able to weather the storm and use her aggression and strength to her advantage here. Lee is also a durable fighter herself but showed in her last time out that she tends to slow down significantly when she is being constantly pressured by her opponent. I favor the fight to go to decision, both fighters are durable on the feet and neither are known for their power. We also don’t often see Barber attempting submissions and Lee is a black belt so I think she will be able to defend any possible submission attempts from Barber if need be. I see the first round being competitive, but as the fight goes on I believe that Barber will just be too strong and aggressive for Lee. My prediction is a unanimous decision win for Maycee “The Future” Barber.

Prediction:
Maycee Barber via Decision
(Please note: This prediction is not associated with the MMAPlay365 packages, subscriptions or services)