UFC Vegas 69: Blanchfield vs Andrade

The UFC returns to the Las Vegas Apex this Saturday for UFC Vegas 69, where Jessica Andrade saved the evening and stepped in on just a week notice following her fight versus Lauren Murphy to face the rising prospect and grappling phenom Erin Blanchfield.

Erin Blanchfield (10-1) lived up to the hype when she made quick work of Molly McCann (13-5-0) in November of 2022 at UFC 281, securing a first round kimura that forced McCann to tap. Erin made her UFC debut in 2021 versus Sarah Alpar (9-6-0) following one CCFC win and 2 Invicta wins. Blanchfield’s only loss on her professional record is to Tracy Cortez (10-1-0) who has proven to be a fellow prospect to follow in the UFC’s flyweight division. Receiving her purple belt at the young age of 18 and now holding her black belt, Blanchfield is considered a grappling specialist. Blanchfield trains out of Renzo Gracie Academy in Manhattan as well as Silver Fox BJJ in South Florida. She is one of the younger fighters on the roster at only 23 years of age. Considering she has yet to hit her athletic prime, I expect that we will continue to see Blanchfield evolve. In her last outing versus McCann, it seems that she was more intentional about inflicting damage on the ground as well as keeping a dominant position. Plus, how can we forget the way she walked off and brushed her shoulders? Confidence. That is what confidence looks like, she does not seem to be intimidated by the spotlight. She knows what she is good at and is relentless in implementing her game plan. With a 68% takedown accuracy according to her UFC stats, I enjoy watching Blanchfield capitalize on each opening she can find with inside trips and perfectly timed double legs. She is quick to get to mount and grab a limb any chance that she gets. On the ground, she has great finishing instinct. It seems that each time Erin Blanchfield steps in the octagon, she becomes more and more comfortable. Although she is not considered a striker, she has thrown more strikes than all 4 previous opponents she has faced. Despite having yet to see Blanchfield go 5 rounds, I like that she was able to take Miranda Maverick (13-4-0) down 7 times throughout a three round bout and seemingly hold up well in terms of conditioning. Blanchfield continues to impress, regardless of a win or a loss here, she is a flyweight to keep the eyes on.

Jessica Andrade (24-9-0) is a powerful striker that continues to impress us with her ability to evolve as her UFC career moves forward. Not only does she have dynamite in her hands, securing an impressive 9 KO wins in her pro career, she is also a sneaky submission artist with 8 submissions on her record. Jessica is the promotion’s only fighter in history to secure a standing arm triangle, proving her strength. Andrade has spent many years of her career at the top and has deep experience in facing world class opposition. Making her debut in 2013, just months after the first women’s mixed martial arts fight in UFC history, Andrade has been able to accumulate over 20 fights on the biggest stage in the sport. In recent years, she has only come up short to former and current champions. Andrade’s last loss was to Valentina Shevchenko (23-3-0), the dominant flyweight champion. In this fight, Andrade lost via KO and has since made notable changes in her guard and defensive movement. In reviewing the tape of Andrade, I’ve noticed that she leads with her left jab and although she is a power puncher, she no longer goes into the octagon to get into a brawl. She has become very calculated in her strikes and counter-strikes. She knows what to do and when to do it, patiently reading her opponent’s movement and stepping on the gas when she is confident that she’s not in danger. When we see Andrade connect, it is clear that she has a power advantage against many of her opponents. Not only does she hit hard, she sets a pace that many of her opponents are unable to keep up with. When Andrade explodes, it is rarely once or twice. She recognizes when her opponents are in danger and steps on the gas throwing heavy looping punches and strikes to the body. In her recent fights, I have noticed that she has also incorporated a heavy kick oriented game plan, attacking her opponents with kicks to the body and legs. This game plan seems to be working in her favor. Jessica Andrade is certainly riding momentum, further proving that with her confidence in taking this fight against a young prospect on 7 days notice.

Breakdown/Prediction:

Though this wasn’t the original main event meant to come to fruition on Saturday night, it is just as exciting. The confidence in both of these women to accept this fight on such short notice just shows how sure of themselves each of them are, which makes for a great fight. This will be a huge test for Erin Blanchfield, though she had originally signed to fight Talia Santos (19-2-0) who most recently fought the flyweight champion, don’t be mistaken in thinking that her fight with Andrade, ranked #3, will be a lighter test. Blanchfield’s defense on the feet will have to be stronger than ever before. I liked the improvement she showed in her aggression in her last fight and if she does get it to the ground in the first, I think she will show the same aggression as she has a lot to fight for here. Andrade has only lost to world class grapplers and this will be the perfect way for us to see how Blanchfield’s talented grappling skills hold up against the top of the division. Although Blanchfield is younger, I think that Andrade’s experience in the UFC against the top of more than one division will show here. It seems that Andrade is piecing things together very well lately, and I don’t like the lack of defense that I’ve seen in Blanchfield’s recent fights. The first round will be telling here. I like Jessica’s strong frame, knees in the clinch and understanding of range to keep her safe from the takedown. Let’s also not forget Andrade’s talent on the ground as well. I think that Andrade ultimately has more ways to win here, has fought the tougher opponents and seemingly gets better and better each time she’s out. There are some interesting factors to consider knowing that Andrade is stepping in on short notice, but she did not take any damage in her last time out, which was a masterclass over #6 ranked Lauren Murphy. The game plan for Blanchfield is fairly clear and it will be interesting to see if Blanchfield can get it to the ground, like she has so many times before. With championship opportunities in the near future of whoever takes this win, I expect this to be a great fight between two fighters with two completely different game plans. It will be interesting to see who can implement their own more dominantly than the other. Considering that we haven’t seen Blanchfield against a top five opponent yet, I can’t trust her defense to protect her from the shots of a striker on the level of Andrade, especially with the power aspect in mind. I can see a world where Andrade reads her movement early on and pressures her towards the cage with knees in the clinch, kicks, and strong combinations, securing a round 1 TKO. I don’t like that Blanchfield was hit with a couple clean shots by JJ Aldrich as well as taken down and controlled in the clinch at times. I find Andrade to be a better and stronger striker than Aldrich, and strong in the clinch as well. Regardless, I know we have high chances of this being an extremely competitive fight and I am eager to see who comes out with the win.

Prediction:
Jessica Andrade via TKO Round 1
(Please note: This prediction is not associated with the MMAPlay365 packages, subscriptions or services)