UFC Vegas 7 Predictions – Pedro Munhoz vs. Frankie Edgar
UFC Vegas 7 will see the Bantamweight debut of future UFC hall of famer Frankie Edgar as he prepares to take on top 5 contender Pedro Munhoz, in search of more UFC glory. Edgar makes the step down to Bantamweight after ending his long Featherweight run with two losses to then champ Max Holloway and perennial contender Chan Sung Jung. Munhoz has been a stalwart at 135lbs for years now and is a formidable opponent for just about anyone in the division, promising to present Frankie with some difficult challenges to overcome in his debut. Pedro’s coming off a loss in a great fight with now #1 contender Aljamain Sterling and will be looking to get back into title contention whilst adding a UFC vet to his already impressive resume´.
Frankie Edgar’s decision to move to Bantamweight this late in his career came to many fan’s surprise after it was thought in the past that this might be his optimum weight class. Now at 38, Edgar will finally make the drop down after being undersized for the majority of his career after competing at 155lbs and 145lbs, holding the belt in the former and successfully defending the title on 3 occasions.
Edgar’s career success has largely been based around a volume boxing game that he blends well with his wrestling. In modern MMA we so often see wrestlers struggling to set up their takedowns and rather desperately shooting from the outside and struggling to close the distance. Edgar has been one of the best fighters at blending boxing to set up his takedown entries and his trademark post-single by jabbing to the body/chest and reaching behind knee to initiate the takedown sequence. Edgar has always had extremely good footwork, moving laterally and in and out to help corner his opponents into an area where he could mitigate his frequent size disadvantages.
On the mat, Edgar is very positionally aware. In takedown transitions Edgar would notably look to land in a safer position by switching from a single leg to high crotch if his neck was ever being threatened. The first takedown he landed in his fight with Yair Rodriguez is one of the best examples of this, as Yair attempted to threaten Edgar’s neck as he was attempting to take him down against the cage. Edgar switched the takedown into a lift from which he was able to move to the safer side of the guillotine as he put Rodriguez on the mat. In the same fight, ‘The Answer’ showcased his ability to control opponents on the mat. Edgar often isn’t afraid to sit in his opponents’ guard even if they’re active off their back – positioning his opponent against the cage restricting their movement or their ability to shrimp and throw up any offence.
Throughout his career Edgar was always very durable, but that durability has seemed to waver in his last few fights – he will meet Munhoz who is also extremely durable and will encourage a fire fight as much as he can. Munhoz’s boxing has improved as his career has progressed, possessing a lot of power whilst not being afraid to get hit to throw back. Munhoz is one of those fighters that tends to thrive in chaos, often turning fights into swinging matches and relentlessly making use of the low kick and front teep to the body to slow his opponents down. He butchered Brett Johns with the low kick in a fight that I’m still amazed went the distance. Whilst also finishing Bryan Caraway with a front kick to the body.
Munhoz is also an extremely talented grappler and often leads fighters into panic wrestling from which he can look to reverse positions and threaten the guillotine. ‘The Young Punisher’ has 6 wins via guillotine on his record and will look to counter takedown entries by threatening the neck – something that may be especially relevant in this fight should Edgar repeatedly look to take Munhoz down. Munhoz scrambles extremely well on the mat and offers offence from his back with a view to submitting his opponent or getting back to his feet.
This fight poses many exciting scenarios in the standing and grappling exchanges. On the feet, Munhoz certainly has the power advantage but is probably at a speed disadvantage and will need to be careful to not get used to following Edgar – who is for sure the better lateral mover. Edgar’s boxing heavy approach does mean his lead leg will be there for Munhoz to kick and I expect him to get to his trademark body kicks early in order to deplete Frankie’s gas tank and mitigate the speed disadvantage which he may have. ‘The Answer’ will also have to be extremely careful of Munhoz’s guillotine should he decide to repeatedly shoot takedowns and depending on how his gas tank is at bantamweight it wouldn’t surprise me to see Munhoz lock up a choke should Edgar shoot a sloppy takedown. Ultimately, I find it hard to see a scenario in which Pedro Munhoz is not threatening Edgar with either a knockout or a submission and Frankie’s recent durability issues and his decision to drop to Bantamweight this late in his career is only more concerning. For that reason I’ll pick Pedro Munhoz to find a finish over the future UFC hall of famer somewhere in the mid portion of the fight, after Frankie has started to slow down.
Prediction:
Pedro Munhoz – Inside The Distance
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