UFC Vegas 11 Predictions – Colby Covington vs. Tyron Woodley

It seems like every time we talk about Colby Covington’s next fight it’s always going to be a grudge match, however his next matchup with his ex-ATT teammate Tyron Woodley might have the most emotion/bad blood that we’ve experienced in Colby’s UFC career. The animosity between the two welterweights started after Woodley left ATT, with both claiming they used to get the better of the other during training. The pair were originally supposed to square off in a title fight after Covington claimed the Interim Welterweight Championship but for whatever reason, the fight didn’t come to fruition. To add more ‘beef’ to the matchup, Woodley chose to bring in Colby’s former friend and teammate Jorge Masvidal for his camp to prepare for this weekend’s main event. Colby will be hoping a dominant win will earn him a rematch with champ Kamaru Usman, whilst Woodley will be looking to remind the division that he is still a contender after losses to Usman and now number one contender Gilbert Burns.

Colby Covington is probably the biggest ‘heel’ in MMA at the moment and his relentless fighting style is enough to back up his trash talking. Covington presents a relentless pace in striking volume and wrestling that would typically give nightmares to the majority of the Welterweight division (particularly Woodley) other than the champion. Predominantly fighting from the southpaw stance, Covington looks to back his opponents up immediately to the fence from where he can implement his wrestling. Before initiating grappling exchanges, Covington presents a high volume striking offence and uses his boxing, kicks and occasional jumping knees to set up his takedown entries. His variety of attack means he can enter different ranges of the fight safer than if he was to look for takedowns with no real set up. Due to being a natural wrestler however, Covington is hittable when he’s applying his pressure and he doesn’t present a KO threat on the feet. ATT coach Cesar Carneiro has spoken about Covington being naturally right handed, so it is a possibility that we see Colby fight more from the orthodox stance, which will also limit the threat that the open stance matchup poses for him here with Woodley’s power threat.

Coming off the back of two losses for the first time in his MMA career, Tyron Woodley will be looking to bounce back against his biggest rival. The question surrounding Woodley with every fight is will he throw enough? Woodley typically loses every minute of a fight until he lands his power right hand but in his last two matchups he seemed to be more hesitant than ever. At 38 years old, Woodley has become more fixed to his style as his career has progressed – to expect him to change his style completely so late in his career would be unrealistic, however it is quite possible that the bad blood in this matchup could provide Woodley with some urgency. Tyron’s trademark blitz’s are generally what he needs to throw his right hand, and he still presents some of the scariest KO power in the division. The key for him in this fight will be to try and maintain the space he needs to threaten Covington in the striking exchanges. Woodley has fared extremely well throughout his career when facing southpaws, knocking out Robbie Lawler to become champion and also beating Darren Till, Demian Maia and Kelvin Gastelum to name a few. Woodley also posed the most threat to Stephen Thompson in both fights when Thompson switched to southpaw, and will certainly be aware of this going into this fight with Covington.

In terms of grappling, although both fighters are credentialled wrestlers it’s almost certain that we will see Covington trying to implement his chain wrestling in order to test Woodley’s gas tank and wear him out in the later rounds. Covington generally uses double leg entries to initiate takedowns but is just as comfortable transitioning to single legs and the bodylock in order to get the fight to the mat. Covington often fails with initial takedown attempts in the early stages of fights but his conditioning means he can keep a high pace throughout the fight with the takedowns becoming easier to secure as the fight progresses. After he’s succeeded with taking his opponent down, Covington ensures that he stays higher than his opponent to maintain top control. However, his opponents have had success with getting back to their feet after giving their back due to Covington not putting hooks in. Woodley has shown that he can be taken down in his last two fights and should this fight go into the later rounds I expect we’ll probably see the same in this matchup. Contrarily Woodley does do a good job of wall walking to get back to his feet – which may give him success in the early rounds should he find himself on his back.

When analysing Tyron Woodley we often speak about his low-volume and what version of Woodley are we going to see? This question is just as relevant in this matchup as it has been in his previous two losses due to Covington’s high pace, but there are some interesting aspects to consider. The open stance matchup definitely positions Covington in a more vulnerable position than Woodley’s last two opponents; Usman and Burns. I also don’t think Covington possesses the powerful clinch game that saw Woodley get stuck on the fence for large portions of his title loss to Kamaru Usman. Woodley needs to be patient, make his opportunities to land the right hand count and try to maintain space as much as possible – otherwise I find it hard to see the pace and pressure of Covington not prevailing in the later rounds. Covington has typically sustained a lot of damage in his UFC career and that definitely puts him in a vulnerable position should he get hit in the early rounds. Having said that, I find it hard to pick against the more consistent win-condition. Although I think the early rounds of the fight may be closer than some expect, I’ll side with the significant volume and conditioning advantage that Covington possesses to earn him a unanimous decision win, forcing him back into title contention.

Prediction:
Colby Covington via Unanimous Decision
(Please note: This prediction is not associated with the MMAPlay365 handicapper, packages, subscriptions, services or hub)