UFC 252 Predictions – Miocic vs. Cormier 3
Having already traded wins and losses, Stipe Miocic and Daniel Cormier will battle it out for the third time to decide who is the greatest heavyweight in UFC history. UFC 252 will see the conclusion to one of the most significant trilogies the UFC has seen and a fight which is pivotal to both fighters in what could be labelled as the biggest legacy fight we’ve seen in the UFC. This is almost certainly the last time we’ll see Daniel Cormier in the octagon (for now) and with Stipe also presumably coming towards the tail end of his career having voiced his willingness to become a full time firefighter, both fighters will see this fight as being paramount in establishing themselves as sporting greats.
The first two instalments both resulted in KO’s, Cormier claiming the first with a round 1 KO and Stipe claiming the second after coming back from adversity to win the fight in round 4. In both fights there seemed to be an aspect of each fighter underestimating the others abilities. Miocic seemed to not respect Cormier’s power moving up from LHW in the first fight, which proved to be costly as Cormier landed a short right hand that ended the fight as they exited the clinch. Furthermore, in the second fight Cormier seemed to disrespect Miocic’s power and ability to adapt – often pressuring forward recklessly with his hands down before tiring and losing the fight in the 4th round after Stipe recognised DC’s vulnerability to body shots.
The Apex centre will play host to the third and final instalment in the trilogy, meaning the small cage will be used – and I think it’s possible we may see both fighters try to adopt a different approach in comparison to style of fight we have previously seen.
On the feet, DC’s goal will be to apply pressure to achieve clinch positions from which he can use his signature uppercut from the single collar tie or look for takedowns once he’s pressed Miocic towards the cage. In both fights so far, Cormier has used a constant hand fight to disrupt Miocic’s offense and most importantly his jab whilst firing off his own jab (which can result in eye pokes) and hooking around the guard with a lead left hook once he’s engaged Stipe’s hands. Another prominent part of DC’s game plan in both fights have been leg kicks. It’s likely that we see him use them again to prevent Miocic from establishing his jab whilst also restricting the substantial height and reach advantage. DC does need to be wary of the danger should Stipe decide to commit to attacking the body in the earlier stages of this fight and closing the distance will be vital in limiting that threat. Thus, I would expect him to try to close the distance more intelligently this time in comparison to how he approached the second fight.
In contrast, Stipe’s most consistent path to victory will be to try to keep the fight at range and not engage in any unnecessary close exchanges. Miocic has one of the best jabs at heavyweight and it will be key here if he’s to employ an outside fighting game plan. Miocic pairs his jab well with shoulder feints to draw big swings out of his opponents, from which he can return once his opponents have thrown themselves out of position.
One of the things that separates Miocic from most of the heavyweight division is his footwork. In a division where typically fighters move in straight lines, mostly recklessly – Stipe does a good job of utilising pivots and angle changes to avoid rushing attacks whilst also putting him in a position to counter. Stipe utilised this maybe most notably against Francis Ngannou, using his feints and footwork to draw big powerful shots out of Ngannou before countering him while he was out of position or taking him down while he was not in a position to defend. In both fights against Cormier however, Stipe’s footwork has become a lot more stagnant. He looked like he was going to ‘stick and move’ for the first 30 seconds of the second fight before he ended up engaging in prolonged close range exchanges and taking a lot of damage once DC had closed the distance. Stipe will need to use his footwork/angle changes in this fight to prevent Cormier from closing the distance and it would benefit him massively to commit to attacking the body much earlier than he did last time out in order to tire Cormier out. After being behind in the first 3 rounds, Stipe was able to land 14 unanswered liver shots in the 4th round of the second fight which led to him finding the KO. The use of knees as well as hooks to the body will benefit him massively if he’s able to utilise them correctly, that way he will be able to intercept DC’s pressure and also use them in the clinch once the fight inevitably enters that range.
Something I think we may see more of in the final fight in the trilogy is Cormier more reliably wrestling. DC is one of the best wrestlers MMA has ever seen and yet in the first two fights he barely utilised his advantage over Stipe in this area, the one time he did he was able to establish 3 mins of control time and win the round. Cormier has one of the best single leg TD’s in the business, from which he can either dump, transition to a high crotch or trip his opponents to the mat before clamping down on them immediately to stop them getting back to their feet.
One of the biggest talking points from the second fight was how DC seemed to tire going into the championship rounds, and that seems to be what a lot of people are talking about before the final fight. However, I think it’s a possibility that Cormier may not tire as easily in wrestling exchanges in comparison to the almost pure striking fight that we saw the second time round. It is likely going to be hard for Stipe to employ such an outside fighting game as he’s slowing down and this is only limited more by the small cage, which should play massively into DC’s hands. Stipe does without a doubt have the conditioning advantage and a lot of heart however, so it would not shock me to see him come back from some adversity to win again. But with all things considered I think it’s likely that we see DC employ a more intelligent pressure game, while utilising more takedowns once he’s managed to close the distance – earning him the win and cementing his legacy as one of the greatest heavyweight’s in UFC history.
Prediction:
Daniel Cormier via Unanimous Decision
(Please note: This prediction is not associated with the MMAPlay365 handicapper, packages, subscriptions, services or hub)