UFC Vegas 6 Predictions – Derrick Lewis vs. Alexei Oleinik
UFC Vegas 6 will be headlined by a heavyweight clash between former title challenger and fan favourite Derrick Lewis and submission specialist Alexei Oleinik. The event will take place at the Apex Facility in Las Vegas as was the case with UFC Vegas 5 after the UFC’s fight island schedule in July, meaning the fights will be taking place in the small cage. The top 10 heavyweights will play headliners to a card that should present some very interesting matchups, with Lewis and Oleinik both looking to build off of recent wins in order to thrust themselves towards the title picture and a potential top 5 matchup in their next bout.
Both fighters are on two fight winning streaks – Lewis is coming off of a split-decision win against HW debutant Ilir Latifi whilst Oleinik is also coming off of a split-decision win over fellow grappling specialist Fabricio Werdum at UFC 249 in May.
Derrick Lewis has built a reputation as one of the most notable fan favourite’s in the sport after numerous comeback wins, hilarious post-fight interviews and also owning some of the most notable KO’s in recent heavyweight history. His fighting style isn’t the most technically pleasing, generally plodding forward and attacking in flurries once he’s managed to mount some pressure on his opponent. However, his punching power means he can almost scare his opponents towards the cage without them really mounting too much offence themselves. Lewis can finish a fight at any given time, probably best shown in his win over Alexander Volkov in which he lost 14:50 of the fight before knocking the Russian out with 10 seconds remaining. In recent fights Lewis seems to have taken his strength and conditioning more seriously, looking more in shape than he had ever done before – after suffering his KO loss to Junior Dos Santos in March 2019. ‘The Black Beast’s’ game is largely dependent on occasional explosive actions, whether its winging hooks or throwing a flying knee once he’s backed his opponent towards the cage.
Lewis relies on the same explosive actions in order to escape precarious positions on the mat too. He can look clueless at times when he’s on bottom, and will often explode out from bottom position in order to try get back up to his feet, rather than using technical get ups along the fence, etc. Lewis’ lack of lateral movement and athleticism does mean he can be taken down (53% TDD), although he does seem generally pretty good at defending double leg TD’s. In past fights Lewis has been susceptible to body lock and single leg TD’s, most notably in his fights with then HW champion Daniel Cormier and Blagoy Ivanov. Lewis will need to ensure his grappling defence is on point here if he can’t secure an early knockout due to the grappling credentials Oleinik possesses.
Alexei Oleinik is an extremely unorthodox fighter to analyse. At 42, he has 73 MMA fights with 46 (!) career submission wins spanning over 24 years of competition, which will just never sound less ridiculous. Despite this extremely long career, he is still fighting at the top of the game and fighters just find him very hard to deal with. Oleinik’s threat on the feet isn’t really anything significant, although he does have a deceptively long reach and power that a lot of people underestimate. Somewhat more unorthodox than Lewis, Oleinik tends to come forward aggressively, swinging power hooks with the intention of forcing clinch situations from which he can either look to lock up a standing Ezekiel choke, look for takedowns from the body lock position or punch the body in order to wear his opponent down.
Oleinik’s real bread and butter is his grappling acumen. A 4th degree black belt in Japanese Jiu-Jitsu and also a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Oleinik is dangerous for any opponent he faces once the fight ends up in the grappling realm. Oleinik is very much submission over position, which I’m usually firmly against but in his case I can’t really fault due to the success rate he has from some of the most unorthodox positions. He has 12 wins by Ezekiel choke in his career and is the only fighter to own an Ezekiel choke finish in the UFC, with two victories over Junior Albini and Viktor Pesta. If Oleinik is going to win this fight he will need to avoid the early danger Lewis poses and try to get this fight to the mat where he has a significant advantage.
Ultimately this is a striker vs. grappler matchup that can really only end two ways. Although it is entirely possible that Lewis may dead Oleinik in the opening exchanges with one of his trademark haymakers, it is extremely hard to ignore Oleinik’s significant advantage in the grappling, especially when Lewis has never fought a submission specialist in his career. Lewis has looked awful when fighters have been able to keep him on the mat and I’m not sure he’ll be able to reliably explode out of position without exposing his neck or an arm to Oleinik in some sort of transition. Lewis does seem to have the edge in cardio but something seriously strange will have to happen in this fight for it to go 5 rounds and Oleinik has been showing somewhat of a consistent strategy in his recent fights. Furthermore, Oleinik’s willingness to body punch presents and interesting scenario as Lewis has looked fragile in that department in his UFC career, which may help Oleinik get the upper hand if he is to approach this fight as he did his fight with Alistair Overeem. I find it hard not see Oleinik getting Lewis down at some point from the body lock should he avoid the power threat, in which case it is very likely that we see him earning another of his classic submission wins.
Prediction:
Alexei Oleinik via Ezekiel Choke/Neck Crank Round 1
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