UFC Fight Island 3 Predictions – Robert Whittaker vs. Darren Till

Finalising the UFC’s Fight Island schedule, will be a card headlined by a fight which UK MMA fans in particular will have a very high interest in. Robert Whittaker vs. Darren Till is a fight that a couple of years ago would’ve seemed like a fantasy matchup – but now ‘The Gorilla’ faces the former champ in a matchup that has certain title implications at the top of the middleweight division.

Robert Whittaker will be looking to rebound from losing his title to Israel Adesanya in October 2019 to stake his claim for a rematch, whilst Till would surely earn a title shot with a win due to the public interest that a matchup between himself and the champ would generate. This main event promises to be a stand up affair between two of the better strikers in the division and one that the fans will hope brings an exciting clash of styles, whilst being pivotal at this stage in both fighters’ careers.

When on top form, Whittaker is elite. ‘The Reaper’ has a high volume kickboxing game and is comfortable in all ranges – shown most notably in his second fight with Yoel Romero, displaying an elbow-game in close range that he hadn’t previously shown in his career. Whittaker does a good job of attacking in forward flurries, ending his combinations with right high/body kicks to prevent his opponent from exiting on an angle or countering. Whittaker pairs these entries expertly with feints and uses the jab to set up his own attacks whilst disrupting his opponents’ rhythm.

In his matchup with Jacare Souza, Whittaker hooked well off the jab and also paired it well with his lead left hook (best punch) to prevent Jacare from parrying or slipping his jab. He also uses a rear front kick in the same manner, in order to intercept attacks and set his pace in the fight – shown in the first Romero fight after adapting to a knee injury which nullified his use of the jab. ‘The Reaper’ does his best work in the pocket, cutting angles extremely well to relieve pressure and escape danger or land counters. He knocked out Brad Tavares with a left hook after threatening with a rear front kick and then changing his rhythm to land the hook in the pocket exchange.

Whittaker does seem to be showing some cracks in this form that led to him becoming champion, however. He seemed to struggle with the pressure going into his last fight against Adesanya and looked significantly more reckless in his entries. It is also entirely possible that the damage sustained over the 50 mins with Romero could be having an effect on him at this stage in his career.

In contrast, Darren Till is looking to establish himself as a contender at 185lbs after rebounding from his losses to Tyron Woodley and Jorge Masvidal with a win over Kelvin Gastelum in his middleweight debut at UFC 244. Fighting out of the southpaw stance, ‘The Gorilla’ is a pressure fighter coming from a Muay Thai background that naturally looks to mount his offence on his opponent once he’s backed them towards the cage. Till fights big, using a widespread guard to help him pressure his opponent whilst using his footwork to cut off the cage – not allowing his opponents to exit on angles.

Similarly to Whittaker, Till feints well and uses his jab and lead hook proficiently in order to set up his left hand. The majority of Till’s offence revolves around his left side. As well as his left straight (which is his most powerful punch), he has a powerful left body kick which helps him close distance well and allows him to enter different ranges. As well as kicking the body, Till often uses low kicks in order to slow his opponents down and disrupt their entries. He used low kicks well against Stephen Thompson and in his middleweight debut against Kelvin Gastelum and will likely be something that he’ll implement in this matchup due to Whittaker’s boxing heavy stance.

Till’s most evident flaw in his offence is he can sometimes throw in low volume – almost looking like he’s waiting for the perfect opportunity to strike. He famously threw 1 strike in his title fight with Tyron Woodley before being submitted with a D’arce choke, and as a result he can sometimes struggle to win rounds/minutes if he’s not having big moments through his striking.

Defensively, Till has shown he can be caught in the pocket throughout his UFC career. His outstretched guard means opponents have been able to hook around it in the past and that paired with limited head movement presents a vulnerability in which Whittaker will look to exploit. Till was knocked out badly by Jorge Masvidal in his last showing at welterweight after Masvidal used a shifting entry to land the left hook over the top of Till’s guard.

Ultimately this is a very intriguing clash of striking styles. Robert Whittaker has shown the propensity to shine throughout his UFC career in matchups when the fight is brought to him, something that Darren Till will almost certainly do. The big question mark is what Robert Whittaker are we going to see? He seemed to be struggling at the beginning of the year with his hunger for the sport and looked to be lacking some motivation heading into and after the Adesanya fight. However, if he’s anywhere near his best this is likely a good matchup for him. He’s defensively sound enough to avoid Till’s biggest weapons and I believe he can trouble Till in the pocket too, with his lead left hook being a big weapon in this fight. Furthermore, over the course of 5 rounds he will definitely have the volume edge, likely meaning that Till will need big moments to either win rounds or knock Whittaker out to win. For that reason I think we’ll probably see a cagey start to the fight, in which Whittaker will look to build his confidence – but once he’s found his comfort zone I expect him to land shots in forward flurries as Till looks to pressure, growing into the fight as it progresses on his way to earning a unanimous decision win.

Prediction:
Robert Whittaker via Unanimous Decision
(Please note: This prediction is not associated with the MMAPlay365 handicapper, packages, subscriptions, services or hub)