UFC Vegas 3 Predictions – Curtis Blaydes vs. Alexander Volkov

After the surprisingly entertaining card headlined by Jessica Eye vs. Cynthia Calvillo last week, the upcoming 20/06 fight night boasts a much stronger line-up on paper – topped by a heavyweight clash between Curtis ‘Razor’ Blaydes and Alexander ‘Drago’ Volkov. As a usual protester against heavyweight main events, I think this fight actually carries more interest over 5 rounds in comparison to recent heavyweight main events that have either ended in the first couple of rounds or become lacklustre contests that have fizzled out in the later rounds. With both fighters ranked in the top 10 of the division (Blaydes #3 & Volkov #7), a win will certainly help either fighter establish themselves as the top contender behind Francis Ngannou for the title.

A former Folkstyle junior wrestler, Curtis Blaydes has adapted his wrestling very well to MMA. Blaydes’ Folkstyle wrestling background is evident in his ability to control his opponents on the mat, from where he can prevent them from getting back to their feet and land vicious ground and pound. Used famously by lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov, Blaydes uses the cross-wrist control to control his opponents when they are near the cage, preventing them from getting back to their feet and allowing him to land heavy strikes from top. In addition, this also negates many fighters’ tactic to give their back and fight hands to get back to their feet due to the lack of submission threat Blaydes poses. On the mat, Blaydes’ most dangerous weapon are his elbows. In his wins over Alistair Overeem and Shamil Abdurakhimov, he was able to land short power elbows that allowed him to finish both fights shortly after – leaving Overeem and Abdurakhimov both in a bloody mess. To get the fight to the mat, Blaydes has a good variety of takedowns – frequently attacking single legs, blast doubles and takedowns from the body-lock position. Being comfortable with these different variations means Blaydes is just as effective shooting takedowns in open space as he is against the fence.

Due to Blaydes’ strong wrestling, ‘Drago’ is going to have to defend takedowns frequently (Blaydes lands a whopping 6.63 TD’s per 15 mins) to give him the best chance of winning. Volkov generally does have good takedown defence (76%), however sometimes struggles when fighters drive through with their takedown attempts powerfully. When on the mat, Volkov does not really prioritise getting back to his feet and can spend periods on bottom trying to avoid taking damage. He does have some decent foot sweeps that allow him to get back to his feet, however the suffocating pressure that Blaydes brings means they probably will not be effective in this matchup.

On the feet Volkov is a long/rangy striker that uses straight attacks well to maintain his distance and pick off his opponents from the outside. At 6’7” Volkov is one of the tallest fighters on the roster and has good distance management to emphasise the usual height and reach advantage he has over other fighters. He primarily uses jabs and low kicks to establish his rhythm and uses kicks extremely well off his lead leg, often ending his combinations with kicks to prevent his opponent from countering effectively. He is agile for a heavyweight and is comfortable switching up his attacks to the body and head. Volkov is notably more comfortable when he is coming forward, maintaining his range and applying intelligent pressure to nullify his opponent’s offence. However, he can look more vulnerable when he’s forced to move backwards and fight off the backfoot, where he has been known to suffer damage in the past.

Blaydes is progressing with every fight and seemed to have developed his striking/boxing in his recent matchup with Junior Dos Santos. He counters well with a right cross and generates a lot of power in his punches. Blaydes generally applies forward pressure to either land strikes or looks for takedowns when his opponents are backed up towards the fence. He was able to get the finish against JDS after failing to take him down in the first round, countering him as he entered the pocket and finishing him against the fence.

However well Curtis Blaydes’ striking is progressing, he can’t fall in love with his boxing ahead of this matchup with Alexander Volkov. ‘Drago’ will need to consistently defend takedowns to work his striking and look for a knockout, something that he usually earns through attrition rather than possessing the raw power of the big hitting heavyweights. I struggle to see Volkov hitting his win condition due to Blaydes’ supreme cardio advantage and his durability. Blaydes should really dominate once he is able to get Volkov down and I am inclined to think the takedowns will come easier as the fight goes on. This fight will also take place in the smaller cage at the UFC Apex, which will undoubtedly favour Blaydes in his attempts to force the fight to the mat. For those reasons I favour Blaydes to find a home for his ground and pound as the fight progresses, earning his third finish in a row and propelling himself back into the heavyweight title picture.

Prediction:
Curtis Blaydes by TKO – Round 3
(Please note: This prediction is not associated with the MMAPlay365 handicapper, packages, subscriptions, services or hub)