UFC 250 Predictions – Aljamain Sterling vs. Cory Sandhagen

We are now looking at a very fun card with a lot revolving around the future of the bantamweight division – even more so after the retirement of former champion Henry Cejudo at UFC 249. The now-vacant title looks like it will find a new owner from the rumoured matchup between Petr Yan and Jose Aldo in July. However, fans would argue that there are numerous more-worthy contenders for the bantamweight title fighting at UFC 250, than the featherweight G.O.A.T. Jose Aldo.

In what I believe is one of the best matchups of the year so far, Aljamain Sterling and Cory Sandhagen will look to solidify their status as the next bantamweight contender with a win at UFC 250. With both fighters possessing elite cardio and both being ready for the main event slot, it’s a massive shame that this matchup will be contested over three rounds, whilst other fights have been controversially given main event slots over the next month. Regardless of the controversy, UFC 250 looks destined to showcase what is currently the most interesting division in the sport.

What makes Sterling vs. Sandhagen so intriguing is the physical similarities between both fighters. Both are extremely long for the division and fight that way too. Sterling is 5’7” with a 71” reach while Sandhagen towers at 5’11” with a 70” reach. As previously mentioned, Sterling and Sandhagen both have elite cardio and also boast extremely high striking numbers per minute. The fight itself should be a high paced, technical battle between two of the best round winners in the division.

Although there are physical similarities between both fighters, they do differ stylistically. Aljamain Sterling has developed considerably since his KO loss to Marlon Moraes a couple of years ago, now possessing an outside striking game which allows him to fight well at range – especially against the smaller fighters in the division. Sterling’s lateral movement and striking defence are extremely effective in this range, only absorbing 1.95 strikes/pm with a small percentage of those being head strikes. Offensively, kicks are the most prominent aspect of Sterling’s striking game, firing them off frequently from either stance to prevent his opponent from a closing distance and entering boxing range. Sterling’s boxing has improved since he first entered the UFC, he has a good straight left hand from the southpaw stance and sets his strikes up well either with fakes or level changing to a single leg where he can strike on the break.

Cory Sandhagen has quickly become one of the best strikers in the division. His boxing is likely some of the best alongside the likes of Yan and Aldo – largely because of his feints and jab which he uses seamlessly from both stances. His ability to jab from both stances helps him set up combinations, which is especially effective against pressure fighters. Sandhagen cuts angles when retreating or pressuring to either relieve or apply pressure of his own – he displayed both the jab and switch stance most notably against the relentless pressure of John Lineker, a fight where he spent periods fighting on the back foot. Sandhagen is a pressure fighter himself, thus his feints are vital for him to set up his offence and make his opponent second guess when he will attack. When he has his opponent backed up to the fence, he often hand fights to set up his left hook to the body (his best punch) and following combinations which he often ends with leg kicks, keeping his head off the centre-line in the process. Sandhagen’s range management is outstanding, constantly entering and exiting his opponents range to maintain forward pressure often making them miss in the process.

Before developing his striking game, Aljamain Sterling was primarily a wrestler/grappler. Training out of Serra Jiu-Jitzu with Ray Longo and Matt Serra, ‘Aljo’ generally looks to take his opponents down or back them to the cage where he can get the body lock, often shucking to take the back standing. When adopting a more grappling heavy game plan, Sterling presses forward in order to more aggressively force grappling exchanges. He applied this game plan against Jimmie Rivera effectively – although he didn’t take Rivera down in the fight, he was able to keep the fight where he wanted it and where Rivera felt least comfortable. With an array of submissions, ranging from kneebar’s to arm triangle’s, Sterling is dangerous whether he’s on top or on the back of his opponent. Generally though, Sterling’s positional awareness means he looks to secure a dominant position before looking for a submission.

Sandhagen’s grappling and scrambling ability is probably the most underrated part of his game. He’s active off his back and looks to reverse position regularly with the kimura trap, something he did consistently against highly respected BJJ black belt Raphael Assuncao. Sandhagen does get taken down in his fights though (27% TDD) and generally gives his back to go to the kimura from the body lock position, in order to initiate a scramble or threaten with a submission.

For Sterling, the grappling is probably his most consistent path to victory – he could find success should Sandhagen regularly give his back, or if he can square Sandhagen up against the cage to establish clinch positions, something Cory has tended to do in past fights. However, I find it hard to see Sterling consistently winning rounds via takedowns and top position. On the feet, Sandhagen’s feints and in and out movement should give Sterling problems should he get stuck on the back foot, becoming too kick heavy in the process. Sterling was hurt to the body in his previous fight with Pedro Munhoz and Sandhagen attacks the body probably better than anyone else in the division. For that reason, I favour Sandhagen to win most of the minutes and exchanges on the feet. Sandhagen has also been training consistently at Elevation fight team with the likes of Justin Gaethje, Alistair Overeem, and Drew Dober – all picking up wins in the last few weeks. On the other hand, Sterling is coming off a hand injury that required him to have surgery, whilst also having to deal with some uncertainty around his training due to the Covid-19 situation in New York. This means head coach Ray Longo won’t be in his corner for the first time in his UFC career, due to being considered high risk for the virus. It’s a massive shame that we don’t get to see this fight play out over 5 rounds, but either way, it promises to be a fast-paced affair that should solidify either fighter as the next contender for the title.

Prediction:
Cory Sandhagen by Unanimous Decision
(Please note: This prediction is not associated with the MMAPlay365 handicapper, packages, subscriptions, services or hub)