UFC Vegas 4 Predictions – Dustin Poirier vs. Dan Hooker

Ending a run of 5 consecutive weeks of UFC events will be a contest between top lightweight contenders Dustin ‘The Diamond’ Poirier and Dan ‘The Hangman’ Hooker. Poirier is returning after his loss to Khabib Nurmagomedov in his title unification bout in September last year, thus will be coming back after the longest lay off of his career – after having hip surgery at the end of 2019. Hooker will be looking to add to his recent wins over Al Iaquinta and Paul Felder to finally put his name amongst the division’s elite. A win over Poirier will certainly do that, and the pair do have some history after Hooker called for the fight after his win over Iaquinta in October last year. This main event promises to be an intriguing clash of striking styles and looks certain to round off the UFC’s Vegas schedule in style before the start of ‘fight island’ in July.

Over the course of a 23 fight UFC career, Dustin Poirier has built a reputation as one of the best boxers and combination punchers in MMA. Fighting from the southpaw stance, Poirier generally utilises an intelligent pressure game, cutting the cage off with kicks and using his lead hook especially well to prevent his opponent from exiting on an angle near the cage. In addition, Poirier is also a slick counterpuncher when he isn’t pressured aggressively. ‘The Diamond’ slips, feints and uses cross-counters extremely effectively inside the pocket and stays calm in high intensity exchanges – he finished Justin Gaethje after 4 extremely taxing rounds with a straight left counter off a leg kick. Poirier thrives in the pocket offensively and is just as effective defensively, employing a variation of the ‘Philly Shell’ (high elbow guard) to hid his chin behind his lead shoulder, whilst also allowing him to counter from his stance. The downside to the ‘Philly Shell’ is that it does prioritise defence to the head, leaving the body more vulnerable to strikes.

Poirier’s boxing is extremely effective against fighters with high guards (Gaethje most notably). He uses the jab to bring his opponents guard up to then throw hooks on the end of his combinations often then framing and pivoting off to avoid counters – something which will be especially useful against Hooker. Poirier uses timing and rhythm shifts in his combinations in order to catch his opponents off guard, also preventing his opponents from sustaining their own rhythm offensively. In the second fight with Eddie Alvarez, Poirier threw a knee on the end of one of his combos and shifted his timing to land a straight left hand and a flurry of hooks which consequently started the finishing sequence of the fight.

In contrast to Poirier’s inside boxing game, Dan Hooker utilises an outside kickboxing game which usually sees him fighting off the back foot. Hooker uses jabs and teep kicks to the body to maintain his distance. Moreover, Hooker uses outside calf kicks to disrupt his opponents rhythm when they’re entering striking range, however the outside low kick won’t be here in this fight due to the orthodox – southpaw matchup (unless Hooker fights from the opposite stance). Hooker’s ‘signature’ over his lightweight run in the UFC has been his ability to counter level changes with knees up the middle, which he caught Gilbert Burns and Jim Miller with, which is often used as a weapon when he’s fighting on the back foot in fights. Hooker is a tall and lengthy lightweight and usually looks to control the centre of the octagon if he is able to impose himself physically on his opponent. He did this efficiently in the Iaquinta fight due to his height and reach advantage, but also so he could avoid the wrestling threat.

Hooker does seem to be vulnerable defensively if fighters are able to get on the inside of his range and land straight punches, or if he is forced to spend prolonged periods in the pocket. In his fight with Edson Barboza, Hooker took a beating due to trying to smother the kicking game of Barboza and not being able to apply an aggressive pressure game plan – only really throwing single shots which allowed Barboza to counter repeatedly. Hooker would be best served to approach this fight as he did against Paul Felder, fighting off the back foot and using lateral movement well to stay out of danger and pick his opponent off from the outside range.

In terms of grappling, the only way this fight hits the mat would be if Poirier decided to mix takedowns in to his game plan, which he has done in the past. Poirier has good awareness of submission threats and is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, although he doesn’t actively chase submissions. Should Poirier look for takedowns he would have to be very careful due to Hooker’s opportunistic guillotine and choke threat. Hooker’s ground game has become somewhat underrated, having good understanding of wrestling exchanges and levers and also boasting good takedown defence (78%).

Dan Hooker is riding some momentum at the moment, as are many of his teammates fighting out of City Kickboxing with head coach Eugene Bareman. His path to victory in this fight would most likely be to hurt Poirier early and finish. Poirier carries the advantage in championship experience and for that reason I definitely favour him should the fight last into the later rounds. It’s hard to see Hooker being able to fight on the outside efficiently for 25 mins without being hurt at some point. Paul Felder was able to slow him down once he managed to breach his range and the small cage will certainly hinder him should he adopt the same game plan. There are some doubts as to where Dustin Poirier is at in his career, after wars with Justin Gaethje and Max Holloway and his title loss to Khabib Nurmagomedov, but unless his durability has completely gone I think he wins this fight at a high clip. There should be counter opportunities for Dustin due to Hooker’s tendency to throw single shots and Poirier generally does well in these kind of matchups. For this reason I favour Dustin to avoid the early danger and hurt Hooker, ending the fight in the middle rounds.

Prediction:
Dustin Poirier by KO/TKO – Round 4
(Please note: This prediction is not associated with the MMAPlay365 handicapper, packages, subscriptions, services or hub)