UFC Vegas 14 Predictions – Paul Felder vs. Rafael dos Anjos

Initially meant to be headlined by Khabib Nurmagomedov’s long term training partner Islam Makhachev, UFC Vegas 14 was dealt a massive blow when Makhachev was forced to withdraw from his bout with RDA due to injury. An already lacklustre card was dealt a much needed boost when the always game Paul Felder volunteered to replace the Russian in order to keep the card alive. Dos Anjos will be returning to Lightweight where he was once the champion, for the first time since his loss to Tony Ferguson in 2016. Both fighters have historically found it hard to make 155lbs, both having stints at Welterweight so it is interesting that Felder will be making the weight on 5 days’ notice despite training for a triathlon. Felder will himself be looking to prove he is part of the division’s elite after losing a split-decision to Dan Hooker in 2019. Whilst the prospect of facing a game kickboxer must be to the delight of RDA after facing the best grapplers at Welterweight in his last 5 fights.

Paul Felder has proved over his 14 fight UFC career that he’s a tough fight for anyone in the division. He can probably feel a bit unlucky to be coming off a loss to Dan Hooker, in a fight which he seemed to land the bigger shots, but a little over aggression saw him taken down with a minute left in round 5 in what seemed to sway the judges. Possessing a good kickboxing/muay thai game, Felder rarely takes a backwards step. Applying forward pressure, Felder’s main goal is to enter close range from where he can land hard punches or work his trademark elbow game. Felder will make use of all 8 weapons available in MMA, often entering clinch range from where he can land knees from the thai-plum or look to land and cut his opponent with elbows on the break. Felder also has a good kicking game, frequently attacking the legs and body of his opponent whilst also often using the spinning back kick to attack when his opponent is backing off. Spinning attacks are a big part of Felder’s game as he regularly uses the spinning elbow or back fist to mix up his offence. He will use the back fist less regularly now however after breaking his forearm against Mike Perry.

RDA’s return to lightweight will have surprised a lot of fans, after his struggles to make the weight were documented clearly after his title loss to Eddie Alvarez. RDA is one of the best Lightweight’s in UFC history and his run to the title via Benson Henderson, Nate Diaz, Anthony Pettis and his first defence against Donald Cerrone was one of the most impressive we’ve seen in the division. RDA presents a high volume pressure game with the suffocating top game to match whilst also previously possessing one of the best kicking games in the UFC. RDA’s kicking game doesn’t present a massive variety of attacks but the way he was able to implement the low kick into his offence was a massive reason as to why he became champion. Using feints to disguise the low kick or tying it onto the end of combinations made it extremely hard to counter and also helped him close distance and enter punching range or shoot takedowns. As a pressure boxer, RDA uses a shifting lead hook to the body to close distance quickly whilst also mitigating the size disadvantage which he was so often faced with. Dos Anjos was able to use his shifting hook to set up a lot of his offence when he faced former Welterweight champ Robbie Lawler. He out-landed the former champion by nearly 100 strikes, constantly attacking his body and keeping Lawler on the back foot where his power was largely depleted. RDA’s fight IQ has historically been one of his strongest assets, consistently dismantling fighters who were in their prime’s, most notably displayed in his domination of Anthony Pettis when he won the Lightweight title.

RDA’s secondary weapon essentially is his grappling, but it’s something that he’s so often leaned on to give him an edge in fights where he thinks he can gain an advantage. Dos Anjos has mixed in his wrestling often in fights where he can then implement his heavy top game, again evident in the Pettis fight. Once on top, Dos Anjos looks to work to half guard from where he can control his opponent – looking to establish a strong base after which he can look to threaten with submissions. RDA’s favoured submission is the arm-triangle due to it’s availability from half guard or full mount, however he won’t actively look to threaten with it if the opportunity doesn’t present itself. RDA’s game was summarised in 3 minutes against Neil Magny, where he chopped Magny down with low kicks and suffocated him from top eventually finishing the fight with an arm-triangle as Magny tried to scramble to his feet.

Paul Felder’s grappling is very much used as a defensive asset rather than mounting any kind of offence, primarily looking to keep the fight on the feet. Felder has been able to be taken down in his UFC career but has looked particularly sound in terms of defending submissions. He avoided a number of bad positions against Charles Oliveira from the front headlock and back control, before finishing the fights with ground and pound.

Overall, I think this is a very tough fight to call due to where both fighters are at in their careers. If the fight was to have taken place when RDA was in his previous Lightweight run, he would have likely beaten Felder without breaking a sweat. However, Dos Anjos looked fairly depleted in his last outing against Michael Chiesa at Welterweight and nobody can know for sure how he’s going to look cutting back down to 155lbs. Dos Anjos can’t find himself against the cage like we was for long periods against Chiesa and Felder will come forward and try to force him there. Felder will for sure have the advantage in terms of durability and I trust his cardio at this stage in his career more too. However, on 5 days’ notice what kind of fight sharpness will we see from him and how will the cut affect him? I find it hard to see RDA grappling efficiently for 5 rounds but it is entirely possible that he could win a couple of rounds with TD’s. Felder’s use of spinning attacks could provide opportunities for RDA to smother and get to the body lock too, should RDA look to mix in wrestling with his offense. Felder’s also had problems with leg kicks in the past and RDA will reliably look to expose that part of his game. For that reason I’ll side with RDA to steal a decision on the judges’ scorecards after a closely contested fight.

Prediction:
Rafael Dos Anjos via Split Decision
(Please note: This prediction is not associated with the MMAPlay365 handicapper, packages, subscriptions, services or hub)