UFC 255 Predictions – Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Alex Perez

Deiveson Figueiredo’s rise to becoming the UFC’s Flyweight champion has seen him solidify himself as one of the most violent champions in the UFC currently. UFC 255 will be headlined by the first of his title defences, where he will take on Alex Perez after previously being scheduled to face former Bantamweight champion Cody Garbrandt. Perez will be the first title contender to come out of DWCS and will be looking to go one step further in claiming the title. Perez presents some qualities that have in the past given Figueiredo trouble, however he will have to fight his best if he is to have any hopes of dethroning the champion. Flyweight finally has some clarity after Henry Cejudo vacated the belt and it’s first official title defence since Cejudo beat TJ Dillashaw should showcase two of the division’s most exciting fighters.

It’s rare that fighters like Deiveson Figueiredo come around in the Flyweight division. Figueiredo’s athleticism and power are nothing short of remarkable and I’d even go as far to say that Figueiredo is likely the P4P #1 in terms of possessing raw power in the UFC, relevant to his division. Figueiredo claimed the title in a rematch with Joseph Benavidez after a weight miss and an inadvertent clash of heads casted doubt and controversy over their first matchup. The rematch however was absolutely convincing and brutal from start to finish, displaying all of ‘Dues da Guerra’s’ strengths from his power to his submission game and scrambling ability.

Figueiredo employs a long karate-like stance and will frequently switch from orthodox to southpaw. When in the orthodox stance his lead hand will more often than not be used to hand fight in order to disrupt his opponent’s rhythm, or generally used as a way of measuring to land his right hand. When fighting from southpaw, Figueiredo is able to use his lead hand to counter with a check hook from which he can generate a lot of power. The lead hook he uses often catches his opponent’s off guard due to it being a fast counter and difficult to read, as Benavidez found out in the opening exchanges of their rematch. His strongest punch however is undoubtedly his right straight. He has shown a development in his career to vary his attack and hook around the guard, after previously chasing his opponent in hopes of landing the knockout. Figueiredo has shown the ability to fight backwards in his UFC career and a large part of his success there is because of his stiff jab. He generally uses the jab to stifle any forward movement whilst also measuring his range for power shots. When fighting off the back foot he’s also shown the ability to land intercepting elbows and clinch knees when the fight enters the close range. Figueiredo’s strength is probably most notable in clinch exchanges and opponent’s that have generally tried to impose themselves on him physically have rarely been successful. Deiveson’s main issue is his fighting style doesn’t make him effective in winning rounds unless he is landing knockdowns or threatening to finish the fight, and he has been known to tire as fights progress. He’s been out-landed numerous times in his UFC career and statistically he absorbs more strikes (2.81 SApM) than he actually lands (2.8 SLpM), which is extremely rare in UFC champions.

Enter Alex Perez, who with a wrestling background and a good all round skillset that has clearly developed throughout his UFC career looks on paper like he could be Figueiredo’s biggest threat in the division. Perez’s striking has developed a lot in the UFC having previously been primarily a wrestler who looked to gain top time, whilst looking to land ground and pound and threaten opponent’s with a good front headlock series. Perez has become a solid volume striker who will willingly attack the body, whilst also recently adding the calf kick to his arsenal – earning a TKO victory over Jussier Formiga in the first round of his last fight after chopping at Formiga’s calf for 5 minutes. Rather than throwing the calf kick naked, Perez does a good job of using feints or touching the lead hand of his opponent to disguise his attack. In terms of striking, Perez’s willingness to attack the body will certainly serve him well here if he is to test the gas tank of Figueiredo in the later rounds of the fight. Perez has fast hands in the pocket and his application of body attacks help open up opportunities for him to land head strikes as well. On the other hand, Perez does have the tendency to prolong exchanges sometimes which can leave him open to counters, something which he cannot do in this matchup against the evidently bigger power puncher.

Perez’s grappling is probably his strongest path to victory against Figueiredo, especially if he’s able to extend the fight into the later rounds. He possesses a good variety of takedowns, from single legs, double legs, trips and bodylock TD’s, however he’ll probably benefit more from attacking the legs in this matchup due to the strength and athleticism of Figueiredo. Once on top of his opponents, Perez has shown an ability to stay extremely active through ground and pound, whilst also looking to establish position before looking to threaten with submissions.

Figueiredo himself has shown to have progressed in terms of scrambling and threatening off his back. Furthermore, he will almost certainly look to threaten through guillotines and neck attacks against Perez due to the likeliness of him attempting to take the fight to the mat. He caught Tim Elliot with an arm in guillotine as Elliot tried to take him down, so it is possible that we see Figueiredo look to create scrambles and threaten with neck attacks should he fail to find the knockout early.

After a long period of a lack of direction in the Flyweight division, it’s a relief to finally have a title fight between two of the top guys in the division. Both fighters are incredibly entertaining to watch and they both pose interesting threats to one another. Figueiredo has proven himself to be as dangerous as anybody in the first round in the UFC, and Perez’s tendency to prolong pocket exchanges makes me think Figueiredo will have big moments in round 1. However, the champion has shown vulnerabilities to low kicks in the past due to his long stance, whilst also becoming susceptible to counters and reactive takedowns – as shown in his fight with Jussier Formiga. For that reason I find it hard to not favour Perez should he manage to survive past the 7 minute mark of the fight. In addition, his use of the calf kick in his last fight whilst also earning wins through the way of his wrestling both show that he is capable of sticking to a coherent game plan to win a fight. He will have to be wary of neck attacks and the uppercut when looking to take the fight to the mat, due to Figueiredo’s finishing ability. However, due to Perez’s advantages in terms of cardio and minute winning, I’ll take the challenger to cause an upset after surviving the early danger, to become the first champion produced from DWCS and the new Flyweight champion of the world.

Prediction:
Alex Perez via Unanimous Decision
(Please note: This prediction is not associated with the MMAPlay365 handicapper, packages, subscriptions, services or hub)