UFC 254 Predictions – Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Justin Gaethje

For what seemed like an eternity, Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Tony Ferguson was every fans’ most anticipated matchup in the UFC with ‘El Cucuy’ being the most popular pick in terms of trying to solve the puzzle of Nurmagomedov. However, a portion of fans including myself didn’t see this as the case due to Ferguson’s willingness to play guard and not actively looking to get back to his feet. Enter Justin Gaethje, who after stepping in on short notice to replace the champion Nurmagomedov, dismantled Ferguson over the course of five rounds in a dominant and violent display that established he and not Ferguson as Khabib’s next contender. Many fans believed that within the UFC’s Lightweight rankings, Khabib’s true toughest test was in fact the man nicknamed ‘The Highlight’, and after dispatching Tony Ferguson the way he did the question was quickly asked “is this the man to hand Khabib his first loss?”. UFC 254 will be headlined by what is surely the biggest title fight in recent Lightweight history and a fight of the year candidate that will help answer many questions in regards to Nurmagomedov’s aura of invincibility.

Khabib Nurmagomedov’s success in MMA is down to being the most dominant, and best at the most important martial art in the sport – wrestling. More specifically, Khabib has managed to master the ever evolving art of cage wrestling in a way that nobody in the sport has previously shown. There was a time in MMA where the presence of the cage was seen as an assistance to fighters in their efforts to defend takedowns and counter-wrestle to gain the open space and regain their preferred range. Khabib has quickly solidified himself as the most effective cage wrestler in the sport, taking away his opponent’s option to use the cage to their aid and rather seek the space in the centre of the cage to ensure they have any form of out. Thus, Khabib’s primary objective is to keep his opponent behind the black line of the octagon from where he can initiate his entries and engage in close range with his opponent up against the fence if his initial takedown attempt is unsuccessful. In addition, Khabib’s ability to adapt to in-fight situations by making reads on his opponent’s weaknesses is something that makes him dangerous even if fighters do have any hint of success against him (first grappling exchange vs. McGregor). His ability to force his opponent into abandoning their strengths due to them being so concerned with countering his wrestling is what helps him slowly break them down, before exploiting a significant hole in their defences. It’s therefore imperative for any of Khabib’s opponents to keep their back’s off the cage to gain the open space, in order to have any success in defending his grappling attempts and making the most of their openings.

Justin Gaethje poses the most interesting threat to Khabib’s throne that we’ve seen during his UFC reign. Since losses to Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Poirier, Gaethje has nurtured his propensity to get involved in a brawl, in which he would try to outlast his opponent – taking a lot of damage in the process. Most recently against Tony Ferguson, Gaethje effectively managed to outfight and pick Ferguson off with counters as Ferguson pressured forward. Not only did he show an ability to fight effectively off the back foot but he also managed to adapt his style over the course of 5 rounds, finishing Ferguson who everybody thought would have the advantages as the fight progressed in the 5th round. Gaethje is a fighter that thrives in chaos and also possesses extremely good cage-craft both offensively and defensively. Large parts of the Ferguson fight consisted of him drawing Ferguson on to his shots and then angling off to prevent Ferguson from maintaining any meaningful pressure. His defensive cage-craft will be especially relevant against Nurmagomedov if he is to maintain the open space and keep his back off the fence. This has been relevant with all of Khabib’s previous opponents who have tried and failed, however what sets Gaethje apart from the rest is his potential to do damage in those moments where Khabib is able to be backed up.

One of the most notable weaknesses in Khabib’s game is his footwork. Previous opponents who are not as good pressure fighters as Justin Gaethje, have in the past found it fairly easy to push Khabib back – producing periods of the fight in which Khabib is on the back foot. Khabib has the tendency to cross his stance when moving laterally, which should provide opportunities for Gaethje to utilise his low kicks. These have been a staple in Gaethje’s offence since his WSOF days and will be fundamental if he is to slow the movement of Khabib, whilst giving him a better chance of defending his attempts to enforce his wrestling. Khabib’s striking has looked to have improved over his UFC career, however he has always had the tendency to retract his jab low and slow when he’s forced backwards, which could produce countering windows should Gaethje manage to effectively maintain pressure.

Gaethje has also notably been employing a wider stance in recent social media posts, which would allow him to be more defensively sound whilst also lowering his centre of gravity in his attempts to defend takedowns. His first layer takedown defence has been impressive throughout his MMA career, and this likely stems from his experienced collegiate wrestling days. His college wrestling experience seems to be the narrative which the media is enforcing prior to his matchup with Khabib, but we still haven’t seen him have to use it against a relentless grappler.

As much as the media are trying to run with it, I struggle to see Gaethje’s collegiate wrestling background providing many advantages past the 2nd round this weekend. Gaethje’s gas tank has always been fairly suspect but he has managed to manage it more in recent fights due to his counter-punching adaptation. In a fight which is likely going to be extremely high paced, Gaethje will likely have to switch his attentions from defensive grappling to aggressive pressure extremely frequently. It is entirely possible that Gaethje will have success in defending early takedowns, and in turn cause Khabib moments of concern with his forward pressure. Therefore, it would probably benefit Gaethje to come out a lot more aggressively than we have seen in his recent fights with Donald Cerrone and Tony Ferguson. If Gaethje was to outfight it is entirely possible that he could provide too many opportunities for Khabib to shoot on his hips and force him to the fence.

As tempting as it is to side with the challenger, I find it hard not to see Khabib’s relentless nature eventually pulling him through once again. The fact we haven’t seen enough of Gaethje’s grappling/anti-wrestling to be confident in his ability to defend takedowns, means we can’t assume that he will have success over long periods against the best cage-wrestler MMA has ever seen. While I believe it is entirely possible that we see Gaethje become the first fighter to beat Nurmagomedov in MMA, I find it hard not to side with the champ. For that reason, I’ll side the Khabib Nurmagomedov to eventually find a way to enforce his game after encountering some early adversity, wearing Gaethje down in the later rounds and finding a late submission.

Prediction:
Khabib Nurmagomedov via 4th round Submission
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