UFC 253 Predictions – Israel Adesanya vs. Paulo Costa

The UFC’s return to Fight Island will begin with a PPV headlined by what’s sure to be one of the most anticipated fights of the year. Undefeated middleweight champion Israel Adesanya will defend his title against fellow undefeated contender and relentless aggressor Paulo Costa. The matchup promises to showcase a battle of ringcraft and a contrast of styles which will hopefully bring out the best in both fighters and present challenges that neither have particularly come across yet in their UFC careers. As one of the best talents to emerge in the UFC in recent times, this title defence could perhaps be seen as Adesanya’s toughest test yet but one that has the potential to bring out the best we’ve seen from the former kickboxer turned Mixed Martial Artist.

Israel Adesanya’s rise to UFC gold has been nothing short of extraordinary since his introduction to the organisation in 2017, especially when you look at his progress in transitioning from a professional kickboxing career. ‘The Last Stylebender’ has established himself as one of the most decorated strikers that we’ve seen enter the octagon, and his ability to adapt to clinch fighting, whilst his noted progress and understanding in wrestling exchanges has helped him transition to MMA seamlessly. Two of the most notable strengths in Adesanya’s game that immediately position him head and shoulders above the majority of strikers in MMA are his footwork/distance management and his ability to apply feints to his offence which usually give his opponents fits.

A lot of this matchup with Paulo Costa will hinge on ringcraft and how each fighter can apply their own footwork to limit the others success. Adesanya’s use of framing helps him transition from defensive phases to offensive phases by allowing him to attack from the opposite stance. The use of frames also allows him to retreat and exit exchanges safely, often hiding his chin behind his lead shoulder whilst exiting on an angle and not backing himself into the cage. Offensively, Adesanya’s use of shoulder and hip feints allow him to cover a lot of ground at a time whilst making his opponent react to different triggers to set up his strikes. He will also threaten with all 8 weapons that are available to him and has notably made use of these in different matchups he’s had in the UFC. His last fight with Yoel Romero saw him utilise the low kick, whilst he used intercepting knees against Derek Brunson to counter the wrestling threat and made use of hand-fighting and elbows against Brad Tavares in order to stifle any offence that Tavares tried to mount.

In contrast to Adesanya’s elusive striking style, Paulo Costa is a natural aggressor who will look to force exchanges and land as often as possible on his opponent as he can. Costa’s willingness to force the action is reflected in his striking metrics, landing 8.43 S/min whilst absorbing 6.84 S/min. Costa’s main goal is to back his opponent to the fence, doing this by cutting off the cage and intercepting his opponents movement. Once he’s got his opponent in this zone, Costa uses an array of attacks to limit his opponent from escaping. Depending on what stance his opponent fights from, he’ll throw powerful body kicks from his right side (if southpaw) or step through and throw the left kick (if orthodox) to limit their movement against the cage. Due to his relentless pressure, Costa’s opponents will often shell up which allows him to work the body. A lot of fighters show a tendency to head hunt in this situation, but Costa has shown a willingness to attack the body when his opponent has their back to the fence, which in turn brings the guard of his opponent down, making his offence less predictable. Although Costa is a natural aggressor, pressuring his opponents to the cage means he does have the option to use the space behind him to counter his opponents reactive strikes to his forward movement. He knocked down Yoel Romero in his last fight with a clean left hook as Romero backed to the cage and threw his own left hand. Costa’s high intensity means his style can be taxing, however. In the Romero fight he showed signs of slowing down and with this matchup being over 5 rounds, it wouldn’t necessarily surprise me to see him employ a slightly calmer approach in the opening rounds – which will also limit the reads Adesanya will be able to make in the opening stages.

Adesanya came under some criticism after his last fight with Yoel Romero was a bit of a stalemate. Romero typically throws in low volume and that meant Israel couldn’t mount much of his own offence. However, Paulo Costa is all about offence and we’ve seen in the past that Adesanya is at his best when he can be elusive and counter as he did in his title winning performance over Robert Whittaker. The battle between Costa’s aggressive pressure and Adesanya’s need to avoid prolonged exchanges means Costa is likely going to have to slow Izzy down and limit his movement to win the fight. Costa would be smart to make use of the low kick to do this as Adesanya exits range, but it’s hard to see that plus his aggressive nature mounting to a successful strategy over the course of 25 mins. In which case it might be a case of Costa being KO or bust as his style doesn’t promise to sustain itself over 5 rounds, whilst Adesanya has shown he can fight at a high intensity for 5 full rounds. It is possible that we see Costa have success early, but his inability to mount any offence moving backwards and Adesanya’s ability to apply feints to get even the most aggressive fighters moving backwards means we may see Adesanya in his element and Costa’s aggressive nature ultimately being his downfall as the fight progresses. For that reason I will side with Adesanya earning a stoppage in the 4th or 5th round after Costa has started to slow down, remaining undefeated and still the undisputed middleweight champion.

Prediction:
Israel Adesanya via Knockout round 5
(Please note: This prediction is not associated with the MMAPlay365 handicapper, packages, subscriptions, services or hub)