UFC 287: Godinez vs Calvillo
The UFC returns to sunny Miami for the first time since UFC 42 to host a PPV of the year contender headlined by longtime rivals Israel Adesanya and middleweight champion Alex Pereira. On the prelim line-up, long time UFC fighter Cynthia Calvillo (9-5-1) is set to make her return to strawweight against rising Mexican prospect Lupita Godinez (8-3).
Cynthia Calvillo made her UFC debut in 2017 with just 3 wins under her belt as a professional mixed martial artist. Her last fight in the strawweight division was against Marina Rodriguez (16-2). Following a 4 fight losing streak in the flyweight division, Calvillo will be looking to get back in the win column and make a statement in her return to strawweight. In an interview with James Lynch of Middle Easy, Calvillo mentions working with a nutritionist ahead of her return as well as making a move from her long time gym Team Alpha to another highly reputed gym, Syndicate MMA in Las Vegas, Nevada. Although it may be worrisome that she is moving down a weight class in this stage of her career, she seems to have done it with the right team and preparation. Calvillo is a well rounded mixed martial artist with 3 wins via submission, 2 wins via TKO/KO and 4 decision wins.
Although Calvillo has come up short in her last 4 performances, it is worth noting that she took those losses to very game opponents in the flyweight division. In her most recent fight against Nina Nunes (11-7), I liked that she implemented a more diverse style of striking. From the beginning of the fight, Calvillo was chomping at the lead leg of Nunes and seemed to calculate her strikes more precisely. Calvillo has improved her striking throughout her career in the UFC but is certainly further ahead in the grappling department. Calvillo does not have a very high takedown accuracy according to her UFC stats but when looking back at her wins, she is often able to take her opponents down once and control them from top position using strikes and the occasional submission attempt. It seems as if Calvillo has strayed away from the heavy grappling style that she once implemented, but in the interviews leading up to this fight she has mentioned more than once that she favors the wrestling matchup between her and Godinez. Calvillo does her best work whenever she is able to walk her opponent down and be first in the striking exchanges. She does not strike as well when she’s on the back foot, but is dangerous when in range due to her left jab. Though she doesn’t set up many combinations with the jab, she has shown good in and out movement, landing the jab and getting out of the way of a possible counter.
It seems as if her aggression has lowered throughout the years but with the stakes behind this fight and the confidence she displays heading into it, I expect her to come out a bit more active. I am looking forward to her return to strawweight and whether she is able to build her way back up to title contention with a win over a tough prospect of the division.
Mexican up and comer Lupita Godinez made her UFC debut in 2021 and has stayed active since, fighting 5 times in the two years that she has been with the promotion. Godinez fights out of Team Titan MMA and despite the 2 losses she’s had in the UFC, she continues to be a fan favorite due to her bully like fighting style and relentless Mexican heart. Godinez has yet to be finished in her professional career and is not known as a finisher herself. Instead, Godinez grew up with a family of wrestlers and prefers to beat her opponents by punishing them with strikes in the clinch and against the cage as well as ground and pound from top position. In her fight with Arianne Carnelossi (14-3), Godinez attempted 8 takedowns and was able to secure each one, controlling Carnelossi for 13 minutes out of the 15 they were in the octagon together. Not only did she dominate positionally, Godinez landed an impressive 130 significant strikes.
Although she is known as a wrestler, Godinez also possesses danger in the striking department with her overhand right, a strike that many wrestlers favor. Leading up to her fight with Cynthia Calvillo, Godinez mentioned in an interview with The AllStar’s John Hyon Ko that she has been training with former Invicta bantamweight champion Sara Kaufman, who when she retired, was fighting for PFL in the 155 division. This tells me that Godinez is prepared for a competitive fight when it comes to the grappling of Cynthia Calvillo, who should always be taken seriously despite her current losing streak. In watching the recent fights of Godinez, I find myself admiring her heart and willingness to stand in the pocket knowing she will find a target for her tight boxing combinations, but she does tend to put herself in positions that force her to take a shot in order to give one.
Godinez is not much of a volume striker and instead seems to carry bad intentions in the shots that she does choose to throw. She is more of a boxer than a striker and does not often add kicks to her stand up game, she keeps her guard up high and tight and lets go of the hands whenever she is in the pocket with her opponents, even against game strikers like Angela Hill (15-12). Godinez seems to do her best work on the feet when she is close in range, threatening the takedown and using her size to her advantage by pushing her opponents up against the fence. She seems to struggle a bit more with long range strikers like Hill, who she lost a unanimous decision to in August of 2022, the last time we saw her in the octagon.
When the aggressive Godinez shows up, I am thoroughly impressed and envision her fighting for a title in the not so far future.
Breakdown/Prediction:
With both of these women seemingly understanding the stakes behind their fight, I expect to see a display of heart from the both of them. I would give Calvillo the edge in the striking department due to her in and out movement and diversity of striking attacks, although I think Godinez is more powerful and damaging with her strikes. They are both great wrestlers but I consider Godinez to be much more dominant with her positioning and aggression when in control.
Both Godinez and Calvillo typically take the first round to read their opponents unless they find an opening for a takedown. I expect Godinez to be the aggressor in the first round but a part of what makes this fight so interesting is not knowing what Calvillo shows up on Saturday. I am sure she is aware of her need to perform dominantly and will come into the octagon with that mentality. As the first round begins, I think that they will get after each other fairly quickly on the feet. If this is the case and Calvillo stands in range with Godinez, it could be dangerous for her which may cause her to be the first to level change. I don’t think that Calvillo has quite the explosiveness that Godinez carries with her takedowns and when these two engage in a grappling affair, I expect Godinez to get the better of the exchanges.
Considering that Godinez isn’t much of a finisher and Calvillo’s defensive grappling, it may be a challenge for Godinez to submit Calvillo or finish her on the feet. The most likely outcome of this fight is a decision win for Godinez, unless she is able to keep Calvillo down and implement top control and continuous ground and pound to secure a TKO. Because of Calvillo’s experience, it will not be easy for Godinez to control her in those positions and if she does I will be very impressed as Calvillo has only been controlled in that way by former 2x champion and talented wrestler Carla Esparza (20-7). Ultimately, I think we will see Loopy Godinez tire out Calvillo, especially with the unknown effects that the move down to strawweight may have on Calvillo’s endurance. I believe we will see a competitive first round on the feet until Godinez is able to take over with her combinations and strong takedowns. I’m taking Lupita Godinez by decision here, but I am looking forward to watching the return of Cynthia Calvillo and expect her to be a good test for Godinez.
Prediction:
Lupita Godinez via Decision
(Please note: This prediction is not associated with the MMAPlay365 packages, subscriptions or services)