UFC Fight Island 7 Predictions – Max Holloway vs. Calvin Kattar

Kicking off the 2021 UFC schedule will be a Featherweight title decider between Max Holloway and Calvin Kattar. Holloway will be looking to get back to a title opportunity following his controversial loss to the Champion last time out, in which many thought he deserved to win a decision (*it was not a robbery*). Meanwhile, Calvin Kattar will be looking to secure himself a title shot with a win over the former champion. This is a matchup I’ve been particularly excited about even before it’s booking due to both fighters possessing the best boxing acumen in the division. The stakes couldn’t be higher for both fighters heading into this weekend’s main event as Holloway attempts to prove he’s still one of the best in the division – potentially losing 3 fights in a row and 4 of his last 5. Whilst for Kattar – this is certainly the biggest opportunity of his career so far.

Max Holloway is undoubtedly one of the greatest Featherweight’s of all time – and he’s built his career on his ability to melt his opponents with pressure, output and his ridiculous cardio. Holloway is primarily a pressure boxer, who likes to draw reactions from his opponents through feints and range management in order to counter in combination. One of Holloway’s primary weapons over his career has been his jab – and he does so comfortably from orthodox and southpaw. Max’s ability to fight from both stances means he can effectively pressure his opponents through shifts whilst maintaining offence and smothering his opponent’s range. The big staple of Max’s game is his bodywork, without it his ability to wear his opponents down would not be as great as it is. Holloway will mix his attacks to the body in open space, often body jabbing to gauge his opponent’s reactions or working them to a range from where he can implement his somewhat underrated kicking game. All of these attributes help Max in pushing his opponent to the cage from where he can attack in combination and really test their ability to match him in a 25 minute war.

Calvin Kattar similarly is also primarily a boxer with high output and power in both hands. In the way that Holloway attempts to overwhelm his opponents, Kattar is more of a sharpshooter. Kattar is likely the more technical boxer of the two fighters – he boxes extremely well at range and produces power at the full extension of his punches. Kattar’s straight punching is his bread and butter. He has an extremely crisp 1-2 and also one of the best jabs in the division to help disguise the combination through double jabs or jab-fakes. His ability to do this gives him a base to build his combinations off, whilst also establishing his range. He jabbed Shane Burgos’ face off in the first round of their fight by not allowing Burgos to get to grips with the rhythm and timing of his jab, making Burgos bite on different looks and making him miss in the process. Significantly, Kattar’s last bout was a 5 round fight with Dan Ige in which he displayed his ability to fight for 25 mins at a very high pace, something which he’ll 100% need to do in this matchup.

Max Holloway’s relentless pressure and willingness to stay in his opponent’s face does come at some cost however, and that has been exposed somewhat in his fights with Alexander Volkanovski and Dustin Poirier. Although Holloway lands an absurd amount of strikes it does mean he can be hit himself, and fighter’s he has typically struggled with are fighters with superior reach and power advantages (Kattar has 3 inch reach advantage). Holloway has the tendency to hang around in the pocket for slightly longer than he should and against a technical boxer with power in Kattar, this could cause him some problems. Holloway also becomes hittable when stepping through stances as his stance is squared – even though his demolition of Brian Ortega was as one sided a fight as you can get, Ortega was still able to land at times because of this. Furthermore, Holloway’s ability to take a shot is only going to get worse with time, and he has been wobbled quite often in his fights with Dustin Poirier and also Jose Aldo.

As Max Holloway has his flaws that could potentially be exposed in this matchup, so does Calvin Kattar. Kattar doesn’t find it as natural to lead in a fight as Holloway does and that means he will probably spend periods of this fight on the back foot. Couple that with his tendency to back up in a straight line, rather than angling off to relieve pressure and we could have a situation in which Kattar finds himself against the fence with Holloway mounting significant offence. Kattar needs to move more intelligently in this fight and he did show an improvement against Jeremy Stephens and Dan Ige from his loss to Zabit Magomedsharipov, albeit against worse opposition. He does seem to have addressed the previous glaring weakness in his game to leg kicks, and has also implemented them himself in recent fights. However, I don’t see this being an issue in this matchup due to Holloway not being a particularly potent low-kicker himself.

Overall, this is a mouth-watering clash between two of the best boxers in the UFC, period. In a striking fight that is likely going to produce ridiculous numbers for strikes thrown there’s going to be high variance where both fighters will have their own success. Where I do think Max will have success backing Kattar up due to his tendency to retreat linearly, I do think there will also be opportunities for Kattar to counter Max as he attempts to close the distance. Holloway’s usual cardio/tempo advantages are also not as prevalent here as they would be usually and even if he does outland Kattar in certain rounds, it is possible that his tendency to hang around in the pocket for too long could mean Kattar can swing rounds through landing more powerful strikes. Kattar showed a nice lead uppercut that he would use to counter in combination in his last fight with Dan Ige, which could be a good weapon here if he’s to land in the pocket. This is an extremely close fight however, and it could be fine margins that decide it. For these reasons I’ll side with Calvin Kattar to land the more powerful shots while maintaining Max’s pace somewhat, earning himself the biggest win of his career and most likely setting up a title fight with Alexander Volkanovski later in the year.

Prediction:
Calvin Kattar via *close* Unanimous Decision
(Please note: This prediction is not associated with the MMAPlay365 handicapper, packages, subscriptions, services or hub)