UFC 256 Predictions – Tony Ferguson vs. Charles Oliveira

UFC 256’s Co-Main event contains a matchup between top lightweight contenders Tony ‘El Cucuy’ Ferguson and Charles ‘Do-Bronx’ Oliveira in a fight which promises to be one of the most exciting fights of the year. Ferguson will be returning after Justin Gaethje snapped his 12 fight winning streak in brutal fashion, determined to stake his claim for the title after the division was left in uncertainty after Khabib’s possible retirement. Oliveira has finally found his home in the lightweight division and is on a career resurgence, currently riding a 7 fight finish streak in which he’s proved himself to be one of the most exciting fighters to watch in the sport. The most intriguing aspect of this fight is essentially how much of a mirror-match it is. Both guys possess a lot of the same attributes and strengths, and with 47 combined finishes across 67 fights, the two promise to produce fireworks in what is most certainly the people’s main event of the card.

Former Interim champ Tony Ferguson built a reputation as one of the most formidable lightweights in recent UFC history, after violently disposing of contender after contender through his high volume pressure game. Possessing supreme cardio and durability, Ferguson’s game has largely based itself around outlasting his opponents and capitalising on their vulnerability as they start to slow down. Ferguson’s process on the feet is quite hard to understand analytically, and quite honestly it’s possible only he knows exactly the method behind it. His offence consists of an unpredictable flurry of jabs from both stances, elbows and spinning attacks – of which he makes particularly good use in close range. Ferguson is very good at attacking the body with front kicks to help maintain his relentless pressure when the fight is at kicking range whilst also tiring his opponent. ‘El Cucuy’s’ best performance undoubtedly came against former champion Rafael Dos Anjos, in a fight where he was repeatedly able to draw out RDA’s counters with his jab whilst also fighting effectively at range, rather than closing the distance recklessly as we have seen him do frequently in his career. The concerning aspect of Ferguson’s game is he seems to have lost a step in previous fights. Disregarding the Gaethje loss, Ferguson also looked a step off his peak against Anthony Pettis and Donald Cerrone – who are both allergic to pressure. It is clear now that Justin Gaethje was a nightmare matchup for Tony at this point in his career, the question is how will Ferguson look after losing to brutally?

As it appears that Tony Ferguson could well be starting to decline, Charles Oliveira has finally started to put everything together. Formerly a fighter who looked terrified to engage in standing exchanges, often attacking from out of range and leaving himself open to counters – Oliveira built a bit of a reputation as a fighter who checked out mentally once things weren’t going his way. The David Teymur fight probably signified the pivot in his career where he acquired the ability to push through adversity. Oliveira was eye poked twice in the opening minute and was dropped in the first round, before he really applied his game to wobble Teymur with a step in elbow before wrapping up an anaconda choke from the front headlock position. Oliveira’s striking has developed greatly in his recent win streak. Employing a high guard, ‘Do-Bronx’ pressures forward with the aim of keeping his opponent backing towards the fence, often closing the distance with a jumping front kick. He’s become quite a potent counter puncher, consistently reading his opponents movement from where he can attack from stance. The part of his game that has impressed me most in his development however is his kicking game. He’s become genuinely one of the best kickers in the division in terms of his shot selection and his ability to knock his opponent out of stance in order to build off with the rest of his arsenal. He attacks the body well (like Ferguson) but will also attack the legs, which may help him in this matchup as we’ve seen Ferguson struggle with low kicks against Pettis and Gaethje.

Where this fight becomes a mirror-match, is when you compare both fighter’s grappling strengths. Ferguson is famed for his D’arce choke and has always used the front headlock as a way of implementing his wrestling. From the front headlock, Ferguson can apply ‘snapdowns’ to try and get the fight to the mat, or threaten with guillotines to open up D’arce opportunities as his opponents try to fight the hands. Oliveira is equally threatening from the front headlock but rather chooses to threaten with his ‘Bronx’ choke or anaconda chokes. A third degree BJJ black belt, Oliveira will constantly look to threaten submissions when on the mat to create scrambles or opportunities to lock something up. Oliveira’s maturity translates on the mat, as he is able to recognise that being on bottom is ultimately a losing position in MMA. Therefore, he will often use arm-bar and leg lock attempts in order to create scrambles from which he can end up on top. Oliveira’s most underrated aspect of his game is probably his wrestling, possessing a good body lock takedown and also long arms to aid him with double legs against the cage. He often capitalises on reckless entries with his body lock and that is something which I would definitely expect him to try implement here as Ferguson closes the distance.

Due to both fighter’s styles and how similar their archetypes are, this really is a mouth-watering clash and one the fans have dreamt about for a long time. The big question surrounding the build up is where is Tony at in his career? Although I think there is evidence of him declining in his previous 3 fights, it’s not ultimately enough for me to write him off. In contrast, as much as Oliveira seems to have developed the ability to push through adversity, there’s still the cardio concern that will definitely be exposed here should the fight reach the 2nd and 3rd round. However, Oliveira’s willingness to start the fight extremely quickly and Ferguson’s tendency to start quite slow make this a very hard pick. I think it’s extremely likely that we see Oliveira win the first round – as he’s able to counter Ferguson’s reckless entries with counters and also using these opportunities to take Ferguson down from the body lock. However, I like Ferguson’s chances of staying safe on the mat and ultimately pulling away down the stretch. Oliveira will certainly be made to work and he’s shown no sign of his cardio improving to the point where he can fight at a high pace for 15 mins. As dangerous of a grappler as he is, Oliveira’s also shown the vulnerability to submissions himself and it wouldn’t particularly surprise me to see Ferguson lock a choke up in a scramble later in the fight. For that reason, I’ll side with ‘El Cucuy’ to get back on track, surviving a lot of early damage and finding a finish against a tired Charles Oliveira in the 3rd round.

Prediction:
Tony Ferguson via TKO round 3
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