UFC 257 Predictions – Dustin Poirier vs. Conor McGregor 2
UFC 257 will play host to a rematch 7 years in the making that will have big implications at the top of the Lightweight division. Conor McGregor and Dustin Poirier first faced off at 145lbs and since then their careers have changed dramatically. Both have gone on to touch UFC gold since their first bout and now, with some uncertainty surrounding champion Khabib Nurmagomedov’s future – the rematch certainly holds more in terms of title significance. Poirier will be hoping the rematch doesn’t resemble the first fight after losing the original matchup in 90 seconds, after some people thought the occasion was too much for him at that stage of his career. Whilst McGregor will be looking to add another finish to his ‘highlight reel’ in order to potentially set up another meeting with Khabib Nurmagomedov before the end of the year.
After beginning his career at Featherweight and being fairly successful, Dustin Poirier’s loss to Conor McGregor initiated his permanent move to 155lbs for the benefit of his career. Previously, Poirier had shown some chin issues after being wobbled in his bout with Akira Corassani and suffering the KO loss to McGregor (although it was a shot behind the ear). However, his move to Lightweight saw an improvement in his durability, cardio and he has since gained a reputation of being one of the most resilient fighters on the roster.
In terms of Poirier’s style, he’s primarily a boxer and one of the most effective combination and body punchers in the division when he’s at his best. He counters well in combination and benefits a lot from being able to take the lead in fights rather than being on the back foot. However, Poirier’s ability to counter isn’t as effective when he’s under intense pressure and he can overextend on punches if he finds some initial success, which could put him in deep trouble here. Although Poirier lost the first fight quickly, there were some aspects of his game-plan which he should look to implement in the rematch. Poirier managed to buckle McGregor a few times with hard leg kicks, as McGregor attempted to initiate exchanges. This is something that’s become more prominent with ATT guys in recent years after the birth of the calf kick – so it will be interesting to see if Poirier utilises that here.
One of the fundamental reasons in Conor McGregor’s rise to stardom other than his marketability and charisma was his ability to start fights better than anyone else on the roster. A southpaw pressure fighter and one of the best counter punchers in the UFC – McGregor’s ability to apply pressure early whilst making reads immediately means his opponents are more often than not in a defensive mindset from the first bell.
The idea that McGregor’s offence is primarily a power left hand is far from correct. Conor’s cage-craft and kicking game are massive tools that assist him in trying to land his best shots whilst also allowing him to manipulate where the fight takes place in the cage. He’ll use the rear high kick in order to cut off the cage, whilst also helping to disguise the left straight – as we saw in his knockout win over Donald Cerrone. This generally works better in open stance matchups – which could be a problem here against another southpaw in Poirier (although Poirier does switch occasionally), however McGregor will mix up his array of kicks to implement them in different ways. These include him utilising wheel kicks or spinning back kicks to the body when his opponents try to circle away from his left hand, giving them something else to worry about when looking for areas of safety. In addition, Conor seems committed to fighting a Lightweight now which is undoubtedly his best weight class. However, Conor was unable to fight again in 2020 and as a result we have only seen him fight for 40 seconds in the last 3 years whereas Poirier has been incredibly active.
As briefly mentioned before, one of the more interesting aspects of this fight is the fact it’s a closed stance matchup. Conor’s offence benefits greatly in open stance matchups. He will frequently hand-fight in order to enter range safely but he won’t be able to here due to Poirier’s lead hand being on the opposite side. This also means it is harder for him to land his left straight due to Poirier benefitting from the easier slipping opportunities provided by the closed stance fight.
A massive area of concern for Poirier however is we just don’t know where he’s at in his career. Prior to his last fight with Dan Hooker he had major hip surgery and although he beat Hooker, he took an awful lot of damage in the process – absorbing 61% of Hooker’s strikes, of which a large portion were in the early rounds. Poirier frequently found himself backed to the cage and against McGregor that could pose him major problems. If he’s to have success in this fight he will need to weather the early storm and his chances of winning the fight dramatically increase should he get past the 2nd round. I generally think the narrative of McGregor’s cardio being an issue are overblown, but if Poirier manages to get the fight in to the later rounds, it likely means he’s been able to take Conor’s best shots.
There are always unknowns surrounding McGregor when we haven’t seen him fight regularly, however at this stage in Poirier’s career I tend to think it’s a favourable matchup for him. The closed stance matchup does restrict Conor in terms of some of his offence, however Poirier’s historically struggled against fast starters and the fact of the matter is, Conor is the best in the sport in terms of starting quick. As much as I’d like to be wrong, I’ll side with McGregor to repeat the outcome of the first fight – finding a home for a shot and forcing an early stoppage.
Prediction:
Conor McGregor via 1st round TKO
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