UFC Fight Island 5 Predictions – Marlon Moraes vs. Cory Sandhagen

The bantamweight division is one that’s consistently providing some of the most interesting matchups in the UFC at the moment. After Petr Yan was crowned champion at 135lbs with his victory over Jose Aldo at UFC 251, the UFC will be looking to find a contender for his first title defence. Marlon Moraes vs. Cory Sandhagen will headline Fight Island 5 and will definitely have title implications regardless of which way the result goes. Sandhagen will be looking to bounce back from his first UFC loss to consensus #1 contender Aljamain Sterling, whilst a win for former title challenger Marlon Moraes would provide him with a good claim to be the next in line for the title due to finishing Sterling in the first round when they met in 2017. What’s guaranteed is one of the most interesting fight night main events of the year, from which some exciting conclusions and potential matchups will be generated.

Marlon Moraes comes from a Muay Thai background and is primarily a kicker. He manages to generate ridiculous power in his kicks, whether he’s kicking the legs, body or head of his opponent. Moraes’s lead switch kick is one of the quickest in the sport and is essentially his ‘trademark’, KO’ing Jimmie Rivera and Aljamian Sterling with it and rocking Jose Aldo in the opening exchanges of their fight. Something Moraes does in comparison to most other kickers in the sport is being able to resist forward pressure through the use of kicks. ‘Crowding the kicker’ is the consistent game plan when fighting a kicker and is based around fighting in close range to prevent the kicker from being able to employ their game optimally. Moraes does a good job of turning his hips over in kicks and creating a frame with his knee across the body of his opponent whenever his opponent attempts to blitz into range. He did this consistently against John Dodson, who repeatedly tried to close the distance but was halted by the counter-kicking game. This technique is also extremely effective against level changes and resulted in him inadvertently KO’ing Aljamain Sterling with a knee as he attempted to throw his lead switch kick. Although people saw this as quite fortunate and even though he did intend to land a kick, his positioning of the knee was intentional to resist the takedown threat, something every fighter looking to level change on Moraes must be careful of.

Moraes has built a reputation as one of the most dangerous finishers in the bantamweight division since his debut in 2017, and is one of the most dangerous fighters in the division once he’s hurt his opponent. Moraes is extremely dangerous in the pocket, often entering range with a lead hook that he manages to cover ground with well. Although he’s primarily a striker, Moraes is an incredibly instinctive finisher whether it’s on the feet or on the mat. He has a somewhat underrated submission game/guillotine, submitting black belt Raphael Assuncao after dropping him with a right hook and he almost finished Dodson with it in their matchup if it wasn’t for the final bell. Moraes has been known to diminish in fights due to his explosive fighting style, but he did show an ability to fight off the back foot (which will be important against Sandhagen) and win round 3 in his last fight with Jose Aldo.

Cory Sandhagen has quickly become one of the most entertaining fighters to watch at bantamweight, with certain attributes that are unusual for the division. Sandhagen is extremely tall for the division at 5’11” and boasts the highest strike rate in the division (6.49 SLpM). He will be looking to bounce back from his first loss in the UFC to Aljamain Sterling (check that breakdown for more on Sandhagen), however Sandhagen won’t have the grappling threat to worry about in this matchup. As his metrics suggest, Sandhagen is a high volume kickboxer that implements feints to intelligently pressure his opponents and keep them on the back foot. He’s comfortable from both stances and will regularly switch between orthodox and southpaw to utilise different angles to set up his attacks, regularly taking advantage of the open stance to open up the body kick. Sandhagen’s offence largely revolves around his ability to feint and draw attacks out of his opponent. As we looked at in the Paulo Costa breakdown, Sandhagen looks to draw attacks out of his opponents after pressuring them towards the fence from which he can then utilise the pull counter and attack in combination to stifle his opponent’s attempts to counter meaningfully. One of his most attractive attributes as a fighter is his willingness to consistently attack the body. His height and reach mean that he can cover a lot of ground with his left hook to the body and he’ll utilise different set ups such as hand fighting to land it, whilst often combining leg kicks with the body shot as we saw Jose Aldo implement so often in his prime.

A lot of this matchup revolves around pace. Moraes’ win condition relies on him being able to implement his own pace in the fight due to Sandhagen’s high output. Sandhagen undoubtedly has the advantage should the fight go into the later rounds as we’ve repeatedly seen Moraes slow down in fights if he’s not been able to finish his opponent before the 10 minute mark. Therefore, it’s likely that Sandhagen will have to be careful of the early danger that Moraes poses. Sandhagen’s movement has so often been compared to that of Dominick Cruz’s and should Moraes look to repeatedly utilise leg kicks as we saw Henry Cejudo use against Cruz, it is possible that we could see Moraes make it more competitive than some expect late. However, Sandhagen’s ability to switch between stances seamlessly and apply pressure consistently should restrict Moraes’ ability to apply this game plan effectively. In addition, Sandhagen’s willingness to attack the body should serve him extremely well here. We saw Moraes get dominated in round 2 against Jose Aldo after Aldo began to walk him down and counter him to the body regularly, before not showing any offence in round 3 and handing Moraes the win. One thing that Sandhagen will guarantee should the fight extend into the later rounds is constant offence, and for that reason I find it hard to side with Moraes on the basis of him finding a finish in the opening 10 minutes or fighting effectively off the back foot for 5 rounds. Thus, once Sandhagen is able to find a home for his jab – from which he can establish his rhythm and combinations, I find it hard not to see Moraes being dismantled and finished in the championship rounds.

Prediction:
Cory Sandhagen via TKO round 4
(Please note: This prediction is not associated with the MMAPlay365 handicapper, packages, subscriptions, services or hub)