UFC APEX Prediction – Tyron Woodley vs. Gilbert Burns

Concluding the return to the UFC schedule in May and beginning a five-week stretch of events will be a welterweight clash with title implications between the former champion Tyron Woodley and surging contender Gilbert Burns. Woodley will be returning to action after losing his belt over a year ago in the co-main event at UFC 235 to Kamaru Usman, determined to get the chance to earn the belt back. Since then, Gilbert Burns has been extremely active after moving up from 155lbs – fighting four times in the UFC since Woodley last competed and competing in numerous grappling competitions.

‘Durinho’ is currently on a five-fight winning streak with four of those wins coming since his move to welterweight, fighting numerous times on short notice against stellar competition. The first of his wins came against unbeaten Alexey Kunchenko on short notice, also beating Gunnar Nelson on short notice before his most notable KO win of Demian Maia in March this year.

Since losing his title to Usman, Tyron Woodley has varied his training camp, spending time with Mike Swick at AKA Thailand with hopes to rejuvenate his powerful striking game which initially made him a force in the division. Woodley was booked to rematch Robbie Lawler in June 2019 before suffering a hand injury, before having his scheduled return against Leon Edwards in March postponed due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

During Woodley’s title run his offensive game was fairly simple to breakdown. In awkward style matchups against Stephen Thompson (x2), Demian Maia, and now middleweight Darren Till he spent prolonged periods backing towards the fence and exploding forward occasionally, attempting to land the overhand right. This tactic was his undoing against Kamaru Usman as it played right into Usman’s game, allowing Usman to press forward and earn takedowns while he was restricted enough space to utilise his trademark bursts forward. Woodley’s offense comes in low volume because of this – only landing 2.5 strikes/pm. Woodley essentially won the title by winning the battle for the centre of the octagon and not becoming so stationary against Robbie Lawler, consequently allowing him the space to explode forward, landing the right hand in the process. Other than his right hand, Woodley does have powerful leg kicks which he used effectively in the first fight with Stephen Thompson – something we might see more of since spending parts of his training in Thailand.

Burns’ striking game has developed massively over his UFC career, benefiting from the coaching of Henry Hooft at Hard Knocks 365. His lead left hook has become one of his main weapons, notably knocking Demian Maia out as he countered off Maia’s jab. In addition to his improved boxing, Burns has utilised calf kicks effectively and has improved defensively against leg kicks after previously having trouble against experienced Russian kickboxer Alexey Kunchenko. Burns’ boxing defence is still one of his flaws however, rarely moving his head off the centre line and retreating linearly instead of exiting on angles. Although he’s giving up the speed advantage in this matchup, Burns will almost definitely have the volume advantage.

Although he has a wrestling background, Tyron Woodley has rarely used it as a primary game plan in his UFC stint. The two time NCAA All-American has predominantly used his grappling as a backup tool, only taking down strikers Stephen Thompson & Carlos Condit in his last 10 fights. He has tended to fade in fights where grappling has been forced, particularly struggling to keep up with Usman’s pace (but who wouldn’t) – so I don’t envisage Woodley choosing to use takedowns in this matchup, especially because of Burns’ grappling accolades.

A black belt and multiple time no-gi IBJJF world champion, ‘Durinho’ is a grappling specialist. He’s active off his back, looking to sweep to get back to his feet or reverse position – usually rolling to threaten by attacking leg locks/kneebars. Furthermore, his top game is extremely well regarded, being positionally sound whilst usually looking to work to the back of his opponent. Burns has decent offensive wrestling to get the fight to the mat. He has an explosive double leg and uses high crotch single legs when in close range, also utilising inside/outside trips when in the clinch.

Burns’ biggest advantage in this fight is on the ground, but Woodley’s takedown defence (92%) and counter-wrestling means the fight will mostly play out on the feet unless either fighter is knocked down. Burns may have success with calf kicks if Woodley becomes too stationary but over 25 minutes it’s hard to see Woodley not landing the right hand – he could counter Burns’ calf kicks if he gets a read early. Burns’ tendency to retreat linearly and not move his head off centre line likely gives Woodley openings to land the knockout blow. Furthermore, I favour Woodley’s cardio in the later rounds if it was to go there due to having more experience in 5 round fights.

Prediction:
Woodley KO/TKO round 2
(Please note: This prediction is not associated with the MMAPlay365 handicapper, packages, subscriptions, services or hub)