UFC 249 Prediction – Tony Ferguson vs. Justin Gaethje

Tony Ferguson

Record: 26-3-0 | Height: 5ft 11″ | Reach: 76″ | Stance: Orthodox

Justin Gaethje

Record: 21-2-0 | Height: 5ft 11″ | Reach: 76″ | Stance: Orthodox

After the long-awaited decision was made on the status of UFC 249, it was made official that everybody’s dream matchup of Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Tony Ferguson would have to be put on ice once again. Stepping in for UFC Lightweight Champion will be Justin ‘The Highlight’ Gaethje, taking on Tony Ferguson for the interim belt, despite the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.

To the despair of many fans, Khabib Nurmagomedov was forced to drop out of his much-anticipated title defence against Tony Ferguson at UFC 249 due to the travel ban enforced by the Russian government and the uncertainty around whether the initial event would go ahead on 18 April. But after a few issues were resolved that initially forced ESPN and Disney to cancel the event, it will now go ahead in Jacksonville, Florida on 9 May. Furthermore, fans can rejoice in the fact that Khabib’s replacement – Justin Gaethje provides a matchup that promises to produce fireworks with ‘El Cucuy’.

Tony Ferguson and Justin Gaethje have together built two of the most exciting fight portfolios in modern MMA history. Both being pressure fighters with extreme output and being especially durable, this is certainly on the list of my most anticipated fights that could be made at 155lbs. Furthermore, it will also likely provide a more competitive clash of skillsets than the infamous Khabib/Tony matchup promised.

‘El Cucuy’ has established himself as one of the best lightweight’s of all time, racking up a 12 fight winning streak in one of the most intimidating divisions in the UFC. His cardio and output are unlike we’ve seen from anyone before (other than maybe Max Holloway), and he possesses one of the most opportunistic submission games in the division along with Charles Oliveira.

Justin Gaethje has been on a tear of late, dispatching James Vick, Edson Barboza & Donald Cerrone all in the first round after suffering two successive losses against Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Poirier.

As good as both fighters are offensively, they both possess their defensive liabilities as well. Tony was out-landed in his first-round showing against Cerrone last time out and has been dropped at the expense of the unorthodox offence of Anthony Pettis and Lando Vannata in recent times. With Gaethje, although he lands 8.57 sig. strikes p/min (most in the UFC), also absorbs 9.67 sig. strikes p/min.

Gaethje poses some very serious threats to Tony in the early exchanges of the fight. Tony is famously quite a slow starter and has dropped the first round of fights on numerous occasions, while Gaethje is an extremely fast starter with heavy leg kicks and powerful pocket punching. Gaethje’s chances in this fight, however, do decrease if he doesn’t win within the first 7 mins, due to Tony’s already superior cardio which is only aggravated by the late notice call up (he previously said he wouldn’t fight Tony without a full camp) and the uncertain training circumstances. This has little significance in Gaethje’s potential to be dangerous early, though.

Gaethje does tend to slow down going into round 3 of fights and is exposed to body punches, employing a high guard and investing lots of energy into leg kicks, heavy hooks, and overhands. Eddie Alvarez had a lot of success in breaking Gaethje down through consistent body punching and even had Gaethje breathing heavily during the late stages of round 1 of their fight.

Tony’s defensive liabilities of late are even more open for exploitation against Gaethje than they have been in his last few fights. Gaethje is likely going to need a big moment to win this fight and he is more than capable of doing that, as his game is built upon his willingness to close the distance and throw bombs until either he drops, or his opponent does. This attribute is generally what gives ‘The Highlight’ a chance of winning any fight, however.

Gaethje may have been overrated after three first-round knockouts of guys who have all historically struggled against pressure fighters in Vick, Barboza, and Cerrone. Gaethje has been broken by fighters who have managed to weather the early storm in Alvarez and Poirier and Tony Ferguson’s ability to break other fighters through constant pressure is unlike anyone Gaethje has ever faced. Also, ‘El Cucuy’ possesses the advantages in cardio and he will likely have the advantage in a striking war of attrition, should the fight go past round 2. Whatever does happen, this does promise to be an immediate fight of the year contender.

Prediction:
Ferguson by TKO/KO or Sub – Round 4
(Please note: This prediction is not associated with the MMAPlay365 handicapper, packages, subscriptions, services or hub)