UFC 251 Predictions – Kamaru Usman vs. Jorge Masvidal

Starting off the UFC’s Fight Island schedule will be a stacked PPV card, headlined by 3 title fights – with the main event being one of the most anticipated fights of the year. Welterweight champion Kamaru Usman will put his title on the line against now superstar and ‘BMF’ Jorge Masvidal in a matchup that had previously looked like it would come to fruition at the end of 2019.

After Gilbert Burns was withdrawn from the card with Covid-19, the UFC decided to book Masvidal after having initial trouble in negotiations to book the fight before ultimately choosing Burns as the cheaper option for UFC 251. Masvidal shot to superstardom after his 5 second knockout of Ben Askren at UFC 239 in July last year, then beating fan favourite Nate Diaz for the ‘BMF’ belt in November. Usman meanwhile defended his Welterweight title against long term rival Colby Covington, cementing himself as one of the UFC’s top P4P fighters. As a result of the fight being booked on short notice, fans will be hoping that the preparation time and location of UFC 251 won’t affect both fighter’s condition, in Masvidal’s first attempt to acquire UFC gold in his 48 fight career.

Stylistically, Jorge Masvidal poses some interesting challenges for the champion to overcome on such short notice. Usman will be familiar with Masvidal’s skillset, however he won’t have the advantages I believed he would have had over Burns having trained with the Brazilian for most of his career. Jorge Masvidal is known for having developed high fight IQ over the course of a 48 fight career, constantly making reads and countering his opponents tendencies and patterns with high output and crisp boxing.

Having high level striking, Masvidal could be described as a sharpshooter, however he isn’t generally known for his one shot power (although he is a good finisher). ‘Gamebread’ manages distance very well, staying just out of his opponent’s range so he is able to counter as his opponent’s over-extend. He attacks the body well, often with a right body kick when fighting southpaw’s – something that he may use in this matchup as Usman switches his stances. In terms of ranges, Masvidal is also comfortable fighting in the clinch, most recently beating Nate Diaz badly with short range elbows and kicks off the break – attacking in flurries once he’d capitalised on hurting Diaz in the short range.

Masvidal has competed in grappling competitions in recent years and boasts good counter-wrestling and TDD (78%). ‘Gamebred’ has been notably hard to take down across his UFC tenure, having good first layer defence which will be especially important in this matchup.

Kamaru Usman has built a reputation as being one of the most devastating clinch fighters/wrestlers in the division. Whilst having some of the best cardio and output along with Colby Covington, Usman is relentless in grinding his opponents against the cage and in the clinch before working his wrestling and dragging the fight to the mat. Usman aims to put an extremely high pace on his opponents and break them more often than not in the later rounds as their defences begin to weaken. Usman’s style means it’s exhausting for opposing fighters to defend and mount their own offence, often struggling to keep the fight in their intended range.

In terms of striking, Usman’s boxing has improved massively since the start of his UFC career. Training under Henri Hooft at Hard Knocks 365, Usman’s become a threat on the feet as well as being devastating in the clinch and with his wrestling. Usman jabs well from both stances and is intelligent in attacking the body with front kicks and hands to further tax his opponent’s energy. Furthermore, Usman’s starting to show signs of packing more power than he has done previously in his career. Before his title defence against Covington, Usman had only one KO/TKO victory in the UFC, but is now looking like he’s sitting down on his punches more – becoming more of a threat in striking range than he has ever looked previously.

Jorge Masvidal is a big challenge for any fighter to overcome on such short notice due to his experience, but he will have to be at his best if he is to have a chance of winning this fight. Masvidal is a much tougher opponent for Usman than Burns was likely going to be, due to the counter-wrestling, output and cardio that Masvidal has to pose more threats across the course of a 25 minute fight. ‘Gamebred’ is likely one of the toughest fighters Usman will likely have faced to takedown, thus their will likely be periods in the early parts of the fight that are contested on the feet. However, though Masvidal’s cardio and output matchup better against Usman than Burns’ early KO hope, Masvidal’s best chance of victory is to try finish the fight in the early rounds.

The longer the fight progresses the more likely Usman will find it easier to implement his own game, likely winning minutes through grinding against the cage, attacking from clinch positions and acquiring takedowns as Masvidal’s defences start to weaken. Masvidal will likely start this fight at a high pace in an attempt to force a situation from which he can look for a finish – similar to the Askren fight, so Usman will have to be mindful defensively early on. However, should Usman avoid the early danger, I find it hard to see another outcome than Usman implementing his trademark game plan – wearing Masvidal down the stretch on his way to a unanimous decision win.

Prediction:
Kamaru Usman via Unanimous Decision
(Please note: This prediction is not associated with the MMAPlay365 handicapper, packages, subscriptions, services or hub)