UFC Jacksonville Prediction – Anthony Smith vs. Glover Teixeira
Determined to make up for lost time and to be the first sport back on screens around the globe, Dana White made the announcement that following UFC 249 on 9 May, Jacksonville, Florida would play host to two more fight night cards in a 7 day span on 13 May and 16 May. In an attempt to get back on track with their annual schedule, it made sense to carry on with the two main events that were due to take place after 249, whilst filling the cards with other fighters that wouldn’t encounter any issues with travel and who were also preparing for fights in the upcoming period.
The first of the fight night cards, will be headlined by a light heavyweight bout between former title challenger Anthony Smith and perennial top contender and fan favourite Glover Teixeira. Anthony Smith is making his return after his rear naked choke finish of Alexander Gustafsson in Stockholm nearly a year ago. While Glover is on a bit of a resurgence after losing to Corey Anderson in 2018, beating Karl Roberson, Ion Cutelaba and Nikita Krylov.
Since moving up to light heavyweight, Smith’s only loss is to arguable P4P G.O.A.T. Jon Jones. ‘Lionheart’ has finished all of his wins at light heavyweight, and will be looking to make it 5 wins come 13 May.
Smith’s game is somewhat hard to breakdown, as he doesn’t necessarily have any stand out strengths. He’s well rounded, with a good ability to establish his own pace and distance in striking exchanges whilst more often than not applying forward pressure to break his opponents down. When coming forward, Smith tends to opt for hooks around the guard and straight right hands in flurries – shown in his finish of UFC Legend Mauricio Shogun Rua. He does look less comfortable fighting backwards however, routinely circling to his left with a check left hook. Something that does stand out about Smith is his intelligence. He seems to possess good fight IQ and has shown he is able to implement a game plan in order to find a way to win when he needs to.
Glover’s game on the other hand is fairly simple. On the feet Glover employs a forward pressure/boxing approach, aiming to keep his opponents on the back foot and cutting off the cage to either land attacks in boxing range or force clinch exchanges. He seems to favour a right straight, left hook as his go to combination in pocket exchanges and has been historically durable throughout his career. Teixeira found success with this combo in his fight with Ion Cutelaba, after overcoming some early adversity in the first round, before eventually getting the fight to the mat, where he really comes into his own.
Possessing a 2nd degree black belt in BJJ, Teixeira’s ground game is where he shines. His top game is some of the best and heaviest in the division. Often establishing position from top half guard, it opens up opportunities for him to either work to his signature arm triangle submission or pass to side control and mount. In contrast, when working off of his back he looks to sweep his opponent from half guard or chase a single leg to either gain top position or work back to his feet. Teixeira has solid wrestling to lean on in order to get the fight to the ground, opting mostly for high crotch or single leg takedowns whilst also having a good ability to catch kicks in order to initiate takedowns.
Smith does also possess a black belt in BJJ and is therefore not out of his depth on the mat. However, Smith does seem a lot less comfortable on bottom in grappling exchanges. In recent fights, ‘Lionheart’ has spent prolonged periods in the turtle position and has struggled to get back to his feet. It’s entirely possible that if he finds himself in that situation in this matchup he could lose the round or find himself in dangerous positions with Glover finding openings to improve position.
To conclude, I think this fight is quite tough to call for a number of reasons. Glover is 40 and on the tail end of his career, thus there is always the possibility of his durability fading at some point. Smith has recently developed a habit of finding ways to win fights from losing positions, most notably against Gustafsson in his last fight. It’s possible that Smith’s forward flurries could earn him a KO win or allow Glover to earn takedowns (as Oezdemir managed in his fight with Smith), resultingly taking Smith to the mat where I think he is most vulnerable. ‘Lionheart’ does have the cardio advantage however, so should this fight enter the latter rounds, he could have success there.
Ultimately, Teixiera is definitely the better round winner in this matchup and should he be able to keep Smith on the back foot for the majority of the fight I see him being able to earn the win. With a good card to support, the result of the main event should provide the winner with an argument to call for another title shot in the near future.
Prediction:
Teixeira by Unanimous Decision
(Please note: This prediction is not associated with the MMAPlay365 handicapper, packages, subscriptions, services or hub)