UFC Fight Night 211: Dern vs Yan
The UFC returns to the infamous Las Vegas Apex this weekend for a matchup between two top 10 ranked women in the strawweight division, Yan Xiaonan (ranked #5) and Mackenzie Dern (ranked #6). The event has gained quite a bit of traction on social media due to circumstances outside of the octagon with the news breaking on Wednesday morning that the Apex will be closed to media members as well as the public, there has been a fair share of rumors circulating online speculating the reasoning behind the closure but the UFC has yet to make an official statement stating the reason why. The drama behind this card may seem to have caught the attention of the fans more than the fighters involved but I assure you there are plenty of names and matchups to watch at Fight Night 211. Now, let’s get into the women whom the card was built around.
Yan Xiaonan, 33 years old and the first female Chinese fighter signed to the UFC, made her debut in November of 2017. Xiaonan started her mixed martial arts journey over ten years ago in Sanda, a form of Chinese kickboxing. Yan has a record of 15-3 with 7 of her wins coming via TKO/KO and 8 via DEC. She is an orthodox striker and before her previous two losses to the now champion of the division and a top title contender, Yan was riding an impressive 12 fight win streak. Xiaonan is mostly known for picking apart opponents on the feet with her slick striking, pressure and speed, but she does also have a takedown defense of 65% according to her UFC statistics.
Mackenzie Dern, a -200 favorite in some betting lines, is a fan favorite fighter that trains out of RVCA in California. She is the daughter of Wellington “Megaton” Dias who is a highly respected grappler in the game. Dern is the only female in competitive jiu-jitsu to win 5 gold medals at a black belt level, in all five of the highest rated Gi championships & other events like The Euros, The Worlds, The Pan Hams and the Brazilian Nationals. Dern is one of the most dangerous submission artists in all of the UFC roster, regardless of gender. She has a record of 12-2 with 5 wins via decision and 7 via submission. Although Mackenzie has not finished any of her fights via KO, she has 4 performance of the night bonuses on her record and one fight of the night bonus, proving that she is always an exciting fighter to watch. Mackenzie typically only needs to get her opponents to the ground once in order to finish the fight, with an average of 1 takedown and 5 submissions attempted in 3 rounds according to her UFC stats. Dern has the most submission wins in the strawweight division and the second most out of all of the women on the UFC roster.
The Breakdown & Prediction
Both women are fighting to get closer to the strawweight belt, which currently belongs to Carla Esparza. Mackenzie and Yan each have a clear path to victory in this fight. Dern has been picked apart on the feet before, most recently at the end of 2021 by the #3 ranked Marina Rodriguez. If Xiaonan is going to win this fight, she needs to use her endurance to pressure Mackenzie, staying busy and technical with her striking. Xiaonan has struggled with elite wrestlers and grapplers in the past and will need to do everything she can to avoid hitting the ground with Mackenzie. The only way I see her winning is to tire Mackenzie out and work to secure the decision by piecing her up on the feet. Although Dern’s striking has improved under RVCA coach Jason Parillo, she has a very clear path to victory here and that would be to capitalize on any mistake made by Yan and do what she does best on the ground. I don’t doubt that Yan will have some success while the two are dancing it out on the feet but Mackenzie has never been finished in her career thus far and l do not think it will take long for Mackenzie to get Yan in her guard and secure the submission finish, considering all four of Mackenzie’s submission wins in the UFC were done in the first round.
Yan is a tough opponent and has continued to evolve since making her debut but I’m taking the jiu jitsu master here and I believe she will get it done in the first round.
Prediction:
Mackenzie Dern via Submission, Round One.
(Please note: This prediction is not associated with the MMAPlay365 packages, subscriptions or services)