UFC 283: Lauren Murphy vs Jessica Andrade
The UFC makes their long awaited return to Brazil this Saturday with the first pay per view of the year, headlined by Jamahal Hill versus former champion Glover Teixeira for the vacant light heavyweight title and a quadrilogy between two of the best flyweights in the world, interim champion Brandon Moreno and the current champion Deiveson Figueiredo. Preparatory to the title fights that will take place on Saturday, we have a matchup between two women’s flyweight contenders “Lucky” Lauren Murphy and Jessica “Bate Estaca” Andrade.
Brazilian fighter Jessica Andrade (23-9-0) made her UFC debut in 2013, just months after Liz Carmouche faced Ronda Rousey in the first female UFC fight in history. Andrade has since gone on to fight 20 times in the promotion, at one point even clawing her way up to fight for the title in April of 2021. Not only has Andrade fought for a title but in her last time out, she made history versus Amanda Lemos (13-2-1) by securing the promotion’s first ever standing arm triangle. Andrade fights out of Parana Vale Tudo gym in Brazil under owner and head coach Gilliard Fagundes. Although it is a smaller gym with their biggest name being Jessica, we are starting to see more prospects rise out of Parana Vale Tudo such as Karol Rosa (16-4-0) and Maria “Spider Girl” Oliveira (13-6-0). With an average of 6 strikes landed per minute according to her UFC stats, Andrade is an orthodox fighter who is mostly known for her power and sneaky jiu jitsu, she has 9 knockout wins and 8 via submission. Andrade leads with her left jab and despite her being a power puncher, she is wise when it comes to picking her shots. When she does find her target, we often see her throwing heavy looping punches followed by various strikes, from uppercuts to kicks to the body and lead leg of her opponent. When it is time for Jessica Andrade to step on the gas, she does not miss her chance to do so. In one of her recent fights versus Cynthia Calvillo (9-5-1) as well as her most recent fight versus Amanda Lemos, she implemented a heavy kick oriented game plan, throwing kicks to the body and legs of both opponents. Since Andrade’s knockout loss to the flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko (23-3-0), she has made improvement in keeping a higher and tighter guard. As a fighter who has stepped in the cage professionally over 30 times, she continues to improve and for years has remained in the top 10 of both weight classes she fought in (strawweight and flyweight).
Like her opponent, Lauren Murphy has been in “the big show” for quite some time now, making her UFC debut in 2014. Murphy is from Alaska but moved to Houston a few years ago to train at Gracie Barra gym in Katy, Texas. After her last loss to the flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko in September of 2021, Murphy packed her bags and moved to Denver to train at High Altitude MMA, the gym that has prepared her for her upcoming challenge in Jessica Andrade. When I think of Lauren Murphy, I think of a women’s mixed martial artist that has what some might say “that dog in her.” She is extremely tough and her natural love for fighting and competition shows in each fight that she’s in. Murphy did not grow up in martial arts, in fact, she did not do any athletic training until the age of 26. Despite this fact about Murphy, she is a well rounded fighter with good jiu-jitsu, strength and technical boxing. According to her UFC stats, Murphy also has a note-worthy 71% takedown defense average. In her last fight versus former champion Miesha Tate, Murphy was able to showcase her takedown defense as well as the improvements she has made training in Denver, staying disciplined in her footwork and applying a responsible yet impressive amount of pressure in her striking. Although I consider her to be a well rounded mixed martial artist, we often see Murphy striking with volume and sprinkling the clinch in her game plan. In her last fight, she was able to secure two takedowns against Tate who is an exceptional wrestler. Something that I can appreciate about Murphy’s style is her use of elbows and clear desire to inflict damage on her opponents, throwing whatever it takes and keeping her technique in-tact. Judging Murphy from her latest performance, I can confidently say that she has improved her game and I look forward to seeing what she can do with it on her second chase to flyweight gold.
Breakdown/Prediction:
Not only are both of these women fighting for another shot to face Shevchenko, they share substantial physical strength, heart and a well-rounded approach to mixed martial arts. I always find it fascinating to watch a fighter make small yet important tweaks to their game whenever they move teams and I do think Lauren Murphy made the right choice in doing so. Andrade is a heavy hitter, and although Murphy is a strong flyweight herself, I believe that Andrade will have the strength advantage in this match-up. I expect to see both women take their time in the first round, finding the range with their jabs and picking shots wisely. I don’t doubt that we see them both mix up the game plan when needed in this fight, possibly clinching or shooting for a takedown and attempting submissions. When considering Murphy’s takedown defense, I don’t expect to see Andrade taking her down until the later rounds. I predict we will see these two trade on the feet with the more significant shots on the side of Andrade due to the strength discrepancy and Murphy being more of a volume puncher than one to secure a KO with a punch, though she is dangerous in range. I think the improvement in Andrade’s guard will prevent her from taking too much damage from Murphy and make it harder for that left jab of hers to find a home. One of the biggest difference makers I see in this fight is the amount of leg kicks that Andrade throws in comparison to Murphy, I think we will see Murphy in defensive mode rather than offensive due to the power of Andrade and her kickboxing. Murphy is a tough one to finish on the feet meaning that if there is a finish here from Andrade, I expect it to be a submission or possibly a TKO if Murphy gets dragged into the deep waters in the 3rd. I think we will see a competitive first round but as the fight goes on, I predict that Andrade pieces Lauren up on the feet, uses her strength to her advantage in the grappling exchanges, implements that high guard and secures the unanimous decision due to more damaging shots and a strong 3rd round.
Prediction:
Jessica Andrade via Unanimous Decision
(Please note: This prediction is not associated with the MMAPlay365 packages, subscriptions or services)