The Title Fights of UFC 281
Although the promotion has only held 7 events at Madison Square Garden thus far, the iconic venue has quickly become the mecca for some of the most memorable pay per view cards in recent history of the UFC. This Saturday at The Garden we are treated to yet another star studded card headlined by two title fights.
The first championship fight of the night is between #2 ranked Zhang Weili & the current strawweight champion, Carla Esparza. Between Amanda Lemos’ impressive TKO win over Mariana Rodriguez in last week’s main event and Rose Namajunas still holding #1 contendership, the women’s strawweight division has been quite the division to keep up with as of late.
Few champions lose their belt and go on to earn it back but Carla Esparza did that with a record breaking 2,000+ days in between. The UFC’s first strawweight champion will not only look for her 11th victory in the division, she is fighting to solidify her second title reign and silence the doubters that may continue to linger after the lackluster fight she had to capture the belt from Rose Namajunas in May of this year. With a base in wrestling, Carla has an average takedown rate of 3 per 3 rounds. We often see her take her opponent down, advance to side control or mount and keep them underneath her the remainder of the round while raining down shots to the body & head and attempting submissions. Esparza has endured a fair share of ups and downs throughout her career in the UFC but seems to have found a new dose of momentum rolling into Saturday’s fight on an impressive 6 fight win streak.
Zhang Weili, the UFC’s first chinese champion, is looking to follow in Esparza’s footsteps by capturing the belt for a second time. Although she is the challenger in this bout, Weili is currently closing as a significant -340 favorite against Esparza. Weili made her UFC debut in August of 2018 and has since gone on to win 6 of her 8 fights with the promotion, coming up short twice to the former champion Rose Namajunas. Weili is one of the strongest women in the strawweight division, with an impressive 11 knockouts on her record. She is not to be played with on the ground either as she is a purple belt with 7 submissions to her name. Weili is a well rounded fighter but is mostly known for her power and speed on the feet, she does a great job trusting her defensive tactics and utilizing forward pressure to close the range with her opponents and inflict heavy damage, often ending in a TKO. We often see her mixing up her striking game by throwing knees and kicks to the body as well as using her elbows and combinations to her advantage every chance that she gets.
Breakdown/Prediction:
Both women in this fight are professionals at implementing their game plan and staying disciplined in the line of fire. If Esparza is able to get Weili to the mat, it could possibly be a very hard night out for the former champion. Weili is not new to 5 round fights, but she does not have the same amount of 5 round experience that Carla has, meaning she will need to be very cautious of her pacing and the takedown of Esparza at all times. Weili is not the easiest opponent to take down, with her takedown defense average sitting at an impressive 60% according to her UFC stats. In her fight with Jessica Andrade, Weili rocked Andrade with a right and Andrade went on to attempt a double leg takedown which resulted in Weili responding with a strong knee to the body of Andrade. This would be the beginning of the end for Jessica. I believe that Weili’s strength and speed will be a problem for Carla, I see Carla possibly wearing herself out with takedown attempts and resorting to staying on the feet with Zhang, which is a very hard task for anyone in the strawweight division. Carla tends to lack feints in her striking and throws her punches a bit out of range, when standing across an opponent like Weili, I believe that will be taken advantage of. Weili applies every ounce of pressure in her striking and does not allow her opponent much space to breathe. Although it must be noted that Weili has yet to face a wrestler on the level of Carla, I think that she will utilize her speed, takedown defense, and high level combinations to the body, head and legs of Esparza to find the finish. Overall, I expect to see a high level women’s fight and look forward to finding out who will be the strawweight champion come Sunday morning.
A Fight For Legacy: Adesanya vs Pereira
In one of the most anticipated fights of the year and quite possibly the history of the UFC’s middleweight division, champion Israel “ The Last Stylebender” Adesanya faces his old foe in Alex “Poatan” Pereira. This storyline is movie-like. The pair first faced each other in April of 2016 at Glory of Heroes 1, where they fought as kickboxers at the highest level. It was a hard fought 3 rounds for both men but in the end, Pereira earned the decision win and was the man to put a cap on Adesanya’s 11 fight win streak, although many scored the fight for The Stylebender. The two met yet again in Pereira’s home country of Brazil just 11 months later at Glory of Heroes 7. In the first round of their second meeting, we saw Israel bait Alex into throwing his heavy shots by keeping his guard low and looking for the counter shots that Israel is known to throw even now in his mma career. Toward the end of the first round, Israel’s combinations put Alex against the ropes which prompted the referee to separate the two and initiate a standing 8 count. The round continued for 30 more seconds as Alex continued to move forward and Israel chipped away at him with kicks and combinations, ending round 1 strongly in his favor. The second round started out just as chaotic and competitive as the beginning of the first round, with Pereira taking no breaks and testing out Israel’s ability to defend his right hand followed by a left hook. We see Adesanya lean to his right, being the left of Pereira, to get out of the way of Pereira’s right hand. This defense mechanism would eventually be Adesanya’s downfall. Adesanya switches to southpaw, stands in the pocket of Pereira and throws a left that Pereira was able to move out of the way from. We then see Pereira throw the right hook, Adesanya defends by once again moving his head slightly to the right and immediately, Pereira times his left hook perfectly, landing the shot that would knock Adesanya unconscious.
Adesanya went on to leave kickboxing and accumulate 11 fights in mixed martial arts, all ending in knockouts in his favor. These impressive wins would lead him to making his highly anticipated UFC debut in February of 2018. I remember being mesmerized by Adesanya’s defensive movement and ability to bait his opponents into his range, allowing him to pick the perfect shots seemingly every time he threw. He ended his debut via second round tko. Izzy quickly made waves in the middleweight division and went on to fight names like Marvin Vettori, Brad Tavares, Derek Brunson and the legendary Anderson Silva. Less than two years removed from his UFC debut, Israel fought Robert Whitaker and knocked him out in the second round to acquire middleweight gold. Adesanya has yet to lose at middleweight and is one of the most active champions on the roster, defending the belt 5 times in less than 3 years. Although Adesanya started his journey in kickboxing it seems he has tailored his style to the sport of mixed martial arts, mastering his striking, range, defense and strong ability to defend the takedown.
Alex Pereira held not one, but two titles in Glory as a kickboxer. He defended his middleweight title 5 times before challenging Artem Vakhitov for the heavyweight belt, where he made history by becoming the first kickboxer to hold a title in two weight classes. Pereira would rematch Vakhitov in September of 2021 and lose the belt via decision. Shortly after his loss to Vakhitov, Pereira made his way into the UFC and has since gone on to win all three of his fights in the promotion, with his biggest win coming via first round knockout versus #4 contender at the time, Sean Strickland. This fight was the featured bout of UFC 276, with Israel Adesanya and Jared Cannonier headlining. Like Israel, Alex came into the UFC and immediately caught the attention of the fans and the entire middleweight division. He has some of the heaviest hands that we have seen in the history of this division and the UFC in general. Although this will be his 8th fight in mixed martial arts in comparison to the champion’s 25th, many people believe that Israel’s title reign ends at the left hand of Alex Periera.
Breakdown/Prediction:
I believe this fight comes down to Israel’s ability to stay disciplined and technical while using his mixed martial arts experience to his advantage. Pereira’s style is unlike any opponent Israel has faced in mma thus far, although Israel has been across the octagon from many heavy punchers like Marvin Vettori and Paulo Costa, he will have to be at his best all 25 minutes to avoid the power of Pereira. Unlike many of Israel’s previous opponents, Pereira does not need to be baited to stand in the pocket with Israel because that is exactly where he wants to be, and I believe that is his key to winning a fight against the long reigning champion. Adesanya often fights best when his opponents are fighting at his pace and only entering his space whenever it is in his control, using the baits i’ve mentioned above. Izzy is such a long fighter and he has become a master at avoiding shots in the pocket and attacking his opponents with multiple different strikes from the outside. The two of them share very similar reach, with Izzy only having a 1 inch advantage over Alex. They both stand at a tall 6 feet and 4 inches. The only apparent physical difference between the two would be their size with Pereira looking significantly larger than the champion in the octagon. I think that Alex Pereira still has a bit of adjustment to make when it comes to his stance as a mixed martial arts fighter, we still see him fighting in a tight, kickboxing-like stance. His size is his advantage when it comes to the power of his shots but could be a disadvantage against Israel considering that this is a five round championship bout against a fighter who takes pride in his volume and cardio. Fans may think that the style of Adesanya is boring as of late, but I think it is a calculated way to approach competition at the highest level of the sport. Pereira seemingly has one way to win this fight and that is his power.
I am not doubting his ability to achieve a knockout against Adesanya, but I believe that Adesanya has some of the best defensive movement that we have ever seen in the history of the UFC and has improved immensely since their last meeting. He is not an easy target to hit, especially with the adjustments he has made to tailor to the mixed martial arts style. Although Israel has proved himself to be a well rounded fighter and Pereira has been training with one of the best grapplers on the roster Glover Texeira, I don’t see either of these men shooting a takedown in this fight. I think we are going to see a technical fight on the feet and I believe Izzy will use his experience to his advantage to secure a unanimous decision versus his long time rival Alex Pereira. Many people do not realize how close the first fight between the two was, and the fact that Izzy was winning every second before hitting the canvas in the second fight. If you look back at Izzy’s time as a kickboxer and his fights against Pereira, you will notice the apparent changes he has made to his style. Pereira is not fighting the same Adesanya he once fought over five years ago. We are getting a true treat seeing this fight in 4 oz gloves and it is always a possibility for Alex to secure the knockout. But, I have yet to see Israel Adesanya this focused and determined leading into a title defense and alongside his improvements and experience, these are thequalities he will need to end this long time feud between the two very well matched up fighters. This Saturday will bring us a historic fight with an incredible backstory and regardless of the outcome, I am excited to see these two battle for a third time on the biggest stage in combat sports.
Prediction:
Israel Adesanya via Unanimous Decision | Zhang Weili via KO/TKO
(Please note: This prediction is not associated with the MMAPlay365 packages, subscriptions or services)